单选题 Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $ 26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979 1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economics are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so lesssensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices) rich economics now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in itslatest Economic Outlook that, it oil prices averaged $ 22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economics by only 0. 25%～0. 50/oo of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economics-to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable
portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

单选题 The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is______.

单选题 It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if______.

【正确答案】 D

【答案解析】[解析] 文章第三段第二句中“．．．crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol”指出原油价格只是石油价格中的一小部分。第三句则以欧洲的例子说明“taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price"。由此可以推断出选项A“原油价格上升”是错误的，而D选项“石油税上升”是正确的选项。文章中没有阐述商品价格及消费上涨与石油价格的关系，故排除选项B、C。

单选题 The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries______.

单选题 We can draw a conclusion from the text that______.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】[解析] 文章前两段讨论最近石油价格上涨的情况，接着第三段首句指出“Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the l970s'”其原因就是富裕国家对石油的依赖的降低；最后一段指出"One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in Oil prices is that，unlike the rises in the 1970s，it has not occurred against the background Of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand．”由此可以得出结论为选项A“石油价格的冲击不再那么令人震惊了”。

单选题 From the text we can see that the writer seems______.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】[解析] 文章最后一段是最明显的线索。其中"not to lose sleep"，"is broadly unchanging"等词都说明这次石油上涨后果并不是很严重。另外第三段第一句也指出“然而，我们有充分的理由预期目前的经济后果不会像20世纪70年代那么严重”，第四段第一句也表明了对石油涨价后果持乐观态度的原因，因为 Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were，and so less sensitive to swings in the oil prme，显然，作者对此次油价波动的后果持较为乐观的态度，即选项A，而不是选项D“敏感”、选项C“沮丧”或选项D“恐惧”。