单选题
In recent years there has been much talk of a "renaissance" in American manufacturing. A few things seemed to be on the side of the makers. For instance, until recently the dollar was weak. American wages were stagnant, but those in China were booming. Cheap shale oil and gas gave factories a boost. But as we argued recently, talking of a renaissance is overblown. And new figures, released today, add to the mounting pile of evidence saying that manufacturing growth is starting to slow.
We argued before that although there has been a recovery in American manufacturing in recent years, it is not a sustainable one. Employment in the sector is still lower than before the crash. So is one important measure of output: real value added. In short, America has not got better at producing stuff.
Also, much of the recovery in American manufacturing seems to be based on a cyclical boom in "durable" goods—things that you expect to last a long time, like cars and fridges. During the recession, orders for durable goods plunged. That"s because it is quite easy to put off such purchases. By contrast, it is more difficult to put off purchases of non-durable goods, like medicines, because people tend to consume them more frequently.
After the recession, production of durable goods soared. Cheap credit, for instance, spurred demand for new motors and rapid growth in carmaking. That sector accounted for over a third of the durable growth from 2009 to 2013. Yet a recovery based on a few durables industries is unsustainable. This is because when pent-up demand is satisfied, a few big industries will suffer. Overall output is likely to stall.
New data confirm this prediction. Orders for durable goods fell by 1.4% in February. Motor-vehicle orders fell by 0.5%. It is possible that the recent bad weather has had an effect here. But it may be a sign of something more troubling. As economists at Capital Economics, a consultancy, argue, "The more general malaise started back in the autumn of last year. Indeed, core orders have now fallen in every month since last October."
In recent months, non-durable goods have also fallen quite rapidly. What explains all this? The obvious culprit is the strong dollar, because it makes manufacturing exports (which account for roughly half of America"s total) more expensive. Alternatively, it may be because consumers are starting to pull back on spending. In January, consumer credit grew at the slowest pace in over a year, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve. In recent months consumer confidence has dropped a bit. And companies may not be so confident, either, and are thus not in the mood to add to capital stock, says Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities, an investment bank. This does not bode well for American manufacturing or, indeed, for economic growth overall.
单选题
What does the author say about the recovery in American manufacturing?