| Global warming could cause drought and
possibly famine in China, the source of much of Hong Kong's food, by 2050, a new
report predicts. Hong Kong could also be at risk from flooding as sea levels
rose. The report recommends building sea walls around low-lying areas such as
the new port and airport reclamations and uses the most recent projections on
climate change to point to a gloomy outlook for China. By 2050 about 30 to 40 percent of the country will experience changes in the type of vegetation it supports, with tropical and sub-tropical forest conditions shifting northward and hot desert conditions rising in the west where currently the desert is temperate. Crop-growing areas will expand but any benefit is expected to be negated by increased evaporation of moisture, making it too dry to grow crops such as rice. The growing season also is expected to alter, becoming shorter in southern and central China, the mainland's breadbasket. The rapid changes make it unlikely that plants could adapt. "China will produce smaller crops. In the central and northern areas, and the southern part, there will be decreased production because of water limitations," said Dr. Rik Leemans, one of the authors of the report. Famine could result because of the demands of feeding the population —— particularly if it grows and the diminished productivity of the land. "It looks very difficult for the world as a whole", he said. Dr. Leemans said China's reliance on cola-fired power for its industrial growth did not bode well for the world climate. "I think the political and economic powers in China are much greater than the environmental powers, and (greenhouse gas emissions) could accelerate", Dr. Leemans said. "China is not taking the problem seriously yet, although it is trying to incorporate this kind of research to see what is going to happen." The climate change report, which will be released tomorrow, focuses on China but Mr. David Melville of WWF-Hong Kong said some of the depressing scenarios could apply to Hong Kong. Food supplies, for instance, could be affected by lower crop yields. "Maybe we could afford to import food from elsewhere but you have to keep in mind that the type of changes experienced in southern China will take place elsewhere as welt", he said. Sea levels could rise as glaciers melted and the higher temperatures expanded the size of the oceans, threatening much of developed Hong Kong which is built on reclaimed land. "Hong Kong has substantial areas built on reclaimed land and sea level rises could impact on the whole area", Mr. Melville said, adding that sea walls would be needed; Depleted fresh water supplies would be another problem because increased evaporation would reduce levels. |