The manager of the rock band Double Rice (DR) concludes that the band should hire the advertising agency Ad Lib to promote the band throughout the country. To justify this conclusion the manager cites Ad Lib’s campaign to promote a recent DR concert at a large venue in Megalopolis. Tickets for this concert sold out in 12 minutes, whereas one year ago tickets for DR concerts at large venues rarely sold out in less than 24 hours—if at all. The manager reasons that the Megalopolis success must have been attributable to both Ad Lib’s efforts and DR’s popularity. The manager’s argument is flawed in several critical respects.
　　To begin with, assuming that the Megalopolis success was in fact due to DR’s popularity there, the manager overlooks the possibility that Ad Lib’s campaign had nothing to do with that popularity. Perhaps the band recently became overwhelmingly popular due to a new hit song or to a revival of the type of music DR plays. Either scenario, if true, would serve to undermine the manager’s claim that Ad Lib’s efforts are to be credited for the Megalopolis success.
　　The manager also overlooks the possibility that one or more factors other than Ad Lib’s efforts or DR’s popularity were instead responsible for the Megalopolis success. For instance, perhaps DR shared the bill at the concert with another band, whose appearance was the actual reason for the concert’s success. If so, this fact would seriously weaken the manager’s claim that the Megalopolis success is attributable to Ad Lib’s efforts and to DR’s popularity in Megalopolis —whether or not that popularity resulted from Ad Lib’s campaign.
　　Even assuming that either DR’s popularity or Ad Lib’s campaign, or both, were responsible for the Megalopolis success, the manager’s claim that this success can be repeated elsewhere might nevertheless be unwarranted. Megalopolis might not be representative of most cities in which DR plans to appear—in any one of various ways that would adversely impact ticket sales in other cities. For instance, perhaps DR hails from Megalopolis and has far more fans in Megalopolis than any other city. Or, perhaps the kind of ad campaign that is Ad Lib’s specialty, although effective in Megalopolis, would not be effective in most cities.
　　Finally, in concluding that DR must hire Ad Lib in order to ensure similar success throughout the country, the manager assumes that Ad Lib’s services are both necessary and sufficient for this purpose. Yet the manager has not provided any evidence to substantiate either assumption. Lacking such evidence, it is just as likely that some other ad agency would be equally or more effective. Even if Ad Lib’s services are necessary to achieve the manager’s goal, it is entirely possible that Ad Lib’s services would not suffice to ensure similar success elsewhere—due to the sort of factors mentioned above that might have contributed to the Megalopolis success but would not come into play in other cities.
　　In sum, the manager has not convinced me that DR’s interests would be well served if and only if it hires Ad Lib to promote the band throughout the country. To bolster the argument the manager must rule out all other possible reasons for the success of the Megalopolis concert, and must show that Ad Lib is capable of achieving similar success in other cities.