问答题 对周期调整的预算赤字(cyclically adjusted budget deficit)是对经济周期的影响进行了校正的预算赤字。换句话说,它是如果失业处于自然率时政府将会有的预算赤字(它也被称为充分就业预算赤字(full-employment budget deficit))。一些经济学家提出对周期调整的预算赤字永远保持平衡的规则。比较这一规则与严格的预算平衡规则。哪一个更可取?你发现要求平衡的对周期调整的预算赤字规则有什么问题?
   The cyclically adjusted budget deficit is the budget deficit corrected for the effects of the business cycle. In other words, it is the budget deficit that the government would be running if unemployment were at the natural rate. (It is also called the full-employment budget deficit.) Some economists have proposed the rule that the cyclically adjusted budget deficit always be balanced. Compare this proposal to a strict balanced-budget rule. Which is preferable? What problems do you see with the rule requiring a balanced cyclically adjusted budget?
【正确答案】(1)我认为对周期调整的预算赤字规则更可取。因为,对周期调整的预算赤字规则能克服平衡预算规则的两个缺陷。①这个规则允许政府运用反周期的财政政策来稳定经济。当经济衰退时,政府可以运用赤字,使财政的自动稳定功能发挥作用,税收自动下降、支出自动增加。这有利于经济的稳定。②这个规则可以使政府的税收收入在不同的年份之间平滑化,不必在衰退时提高税率或在繁荣时期降低税率,从而降低税收的社会成本。
   (2)对周期调整的预算赤字规则并不能完全克服平衡预算规则的以上两个缺陷。此外,对周期调整的预算赤字保持平衡的规则还会带来一系列问题,比如它没有直接观察预算,而且对于经济在充分就业水平下政府支出和税收应该相差多少的评估并不精确。
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