.  Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicated. In late 1994, the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In 1995, in fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
    Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.1.  From the passage we learn that ______.
【正确答案】 C
【答案解析】 从文章第1段的内容可知，利率与通货膨胀之间的联系并不稳定；政策变动对经济产生影响之前，有一段时间长且易变的滞后期；因此，出现了这样的类比——将管理金融政策比作驾驶一辆挡风玻璃发黑、后视镜破碎并且驱动轮不灵便的汽车。从文章第2段的内容可知，尽管有这些不利条件，但是最近，主要的银行家似乎有不少值得夸耀的东西；去年七大工业国家的平均通胀率下降了，接近30年来的最低水平，比许多国家20世纪70年代和80年代早期经历过的两位数的通胀率要低很多。从文章第3段的内容可知，这一数字也比大多数预测人员的预测低。从文章第4段的内容可知，英、关两国良好的通胀率尤其令经济学家感到惊异，两国的经济，尤其是美国的经济，几乎没有停滞。文章在最后一段总结道：为什么通胀率增长得如此和缓呢?一些经济学家认为，旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所发生的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式。据此可知，英、美两国目前的经济形势比预计的状况要好。C项与文章的意思相符。A项之意与文章第1段第3句话的意思不符。B项不正确，依据句是文章最后一段的最后一句“旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所引起的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式”。D项明显与文章第3、4段第1句话的意思不符。综上所述，只有C项为正确答案。
[参考译文] 许多描述金融政策的词语，像“指导经济软着陆”或“经济刹车”，使人听起来觉得它仿佛是一门精确的科学。事实并非如此。利率与通货膨胀之间的联系是不确定的。政策变化在对经济产生任何影响之前，有一段时间长且易变的滞后期。因此出现了这样的类比：将管理金融政策比作驾驶一辆挡风玻璃发黑、后视镜破碎而且驱动轮不灵便的汽车。
   尽管有这么多不利因素，但近来主要的银行家们好像有许多值得夸耀的东西。去年七大工业国经济的平均通胀率降到了仅2.3%，接近30年以来的最低水平，今年7月才仅仅达到2.5%，这比许多国家20世纪70年代和80年代早期经历的两位数通胀率低很多。
   这一数字也比大多数预言家所预测的要低。每月都要邀请一些经济专家座谈的《经济学家》杂志，在1994年底邀请的经济专家们说，1995年美国的平均通胀率将达到3.5%。事实上，在8月份就降到了2.6%，而且预期全年的平均通胀率能保持在3%左右。在英国和日本，通胀率比去年年底预测的低半个百分点。这不是暂时的现象，在过去的两年里，英国和美国的通胀率一直比预测的低。
   英美两国良好的通胀率特别让经济学家感到惊讶，因为传统的衡量办法表明，两国的经济，尤其是美国的经济，几乎没有出现生产停滞的现象。比如，在今年年初，美国的生产力利用率创历史新高，而失业率(8月份为5.6%)却比大多数人预测的自然失业率要低——在过去，失业率一低于此，通胀率就会上升。
   为什么通货膨胀率增长得如此和缓呢?遗憾的是，即使最令人振奋的解释也是不完善的。某些经济学家认为，旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所发生的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式。