单选题
China"s Property Market: End of the Golden Era
After years of talking up China"s gravity-defying property markets, local land kings are now singing a darker tune. On May 26th 2014 Yu Liang, the president of Vanke, China"s biggest developer, declared that the "golden era" in which "everybody makes money out of property is gone". That came on the heels of comments by Pan Shiyi, the boss of Soho China, another property firm, likening the country"s real-estate (不动产) sector to the Titanic: "It will soon hit an iceberg."
Official data show the country"s property market is indeed coming down to earth. During the first four months of 2014, the value of residential sales fell by nearly 10% versus a year ago, and construction activity on new homes fell by a quarter. The decline on a month-to-month basis is even more striking.
Why is the market losing steam? One explanation is that there is too much building going on. Cooling demand is another reason. Despite a cultural strong liking for property—no bachelor can hope to win over a desirable bride if he does not own a home—it seems that customers may now be ready to put off their purchases. After years of double-digit (两位数的) growth, the economy is slowing. More importantly, recent price cuts of a third or more being offered by developers in some markets have started to worry would-be buyers. These bargains are now available in wealthy coastal cities and not just in smaller cities in remote areas.
Zhiwei Zhang of Nomura, an investment bank, acknowledges the problem of structural oversupply but still believes that recent policy shifts are the main factor. Pointing to a close correlation between property-market behaviour and money supply, he says the market correction was triggered mainly by the monetary-policy tightening that began in the middle of 2013.
Not everyone is worried. Some think the price cuts will lead to another market rebound (反弹). Others hope policy easing will do the trick. Many big cities still enforce policies to curb purchases, argue optimists, so there may yet be pent-up (被抑制的) demand. That is a theory that may soon come to be tested.