39. In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade Agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.
Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given?

A、 Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B、 Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C、 The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D、 Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E、 The agency's five-year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

【正确答案】 D

【答案解析】 Argument Construction
Situation A review in 1994 revealed that every year since 1963, Marut's Foreign Trade Agency had seriously
underestimated what Goro's GNP would be five years later, but accurately estimated what Goro's
GNP had been the previous year.
Reasoning What conclusion do the stated facts most strongly support? Goro's GNP in each year at least from 1969
through 1993 had been seriously underestimated by the agency five years in advance, yet was then
accurately estimated by the agency one year after the fact. It follows that for each of these years,
the agency's earlier projection of Goro's GNP must have been much lower than its later estimate.
A This is not supported by the information given. The fact that the agency consistently underestimated each year's GNP in its five-year projections and then correctly estimated it after the fact does not indicate that Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly.
B This is not supported by the information given. The reason the agency's five-year projections were inaccurate might well have been that Goro deliberately released data intended to mislead the agency in making those projections.
C This is not supported by the information given. The fact that the underestimates remained large throughout the years in question does not indicate that the underestimates increased over time.
D Correct. As explained above, for many years there were serious discrepancies between the agency's five-year projections of Goro's GNP and its retrospective estimates of each previous year's trade. In any year at least from 1970 through 1993, these discrepancies, if noticed, would have given the agency reason to doubt some of the five-year projections.
E This is not supported by the information given. Even though at least some of the five-year projections were eventually known to be serious underestimates, they could still have affected Marut's economic planning. The economic planners might have retained an unreasonable faith in the accuracy of the most recent projections.
The correct answer is D.