World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict
In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014. This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS" Energy & Fuels.
Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil". "Peak oil" is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model. It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve; a related concept is that of Peak Oil. The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which worldwide production will peak, afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.
However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.
The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world"s conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world"s oil reserves are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.
单选题
Which of the following is closest in meaning to the word "sparked" appearing in paragraph 2?
【正确答案】
B
【答案解析】[解析] 本题问的是哪一项与第二段中的sparked的意思最接近。该词出现在该段的第一句话中，全球石油消费的快速增长已引发了对“石油峰值”预测的兴趣。...sparked a growing interest...该词在此意为“激发，发动”。stimulate“刺激，引起”，与其意思最为接近。其他选项的意思均不合适：flash闪光。change改变。end结束。因此，本题的正确答案为B。
单选题
The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will ______.
【正确答案】
D
【答案解析】[解析] 本题问的是第二段中出现的“a bell shaped curve”暗示了全球石油生产的什么信息。该段的倒数第二句话说到，It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve; a related concept is that of Peak Oil.全球石油生产会遵循一个钟形曲线，与此相关的一个概念就是“石油峰值论”。并在最后一句话中解释到，The term "Peak Oil" indicates the moment in which worldwide production will peak, afterwards to start on irreversible decline.说明，全球石油生产达到最大峰值后将下降。D信息符合原文内容。因此，本题的正确答案为D。
单选题
Which of the following is NOT true of the Hubbert model?
单选题
What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph?
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】[解析] 本题问的是最后一段提到的新研究的最大成就。根据题干定位至原文的最后一段。该段的倒数第三句话明确说到，They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. 科学家们预计全球常规原油生产到2014年将达最高峰值。由此可知，A选项符合原文内容。而其他选项的说法在原文中均没有提到。因此，本题的正确答案为A。
单选题
Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model?
【正确答案】
B
【答案解析】[解析] 本题问的是谁开发了Hubbert模型的新版本。原文第一段的第一句话说到，...scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014. 这个结果就是最后一段中提到的新的Hubbert模型的预测结果，由此可推知，是科威特的科学家们开发了新的Hubbert模型。因此，本题的正确答案为B。