While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method call predict large E1 Nonevents up to two years in advance. That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that E1 Nino can produce in various parts of the world. Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later E1 Ni?o occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature. The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C. Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it "suggests E1 Nino is indeed predictable." "This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods." Said Weare. He added that the new method "makes it possible to predict E1 Nino at long lead times."Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said. The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance. The 1997 EL Nino, for example, caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas. The 1877 E1 Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said. When E1 Nino hit in 1991 and 1997. 200 million people were affected by flooding in Chinaalone, according to a 2002 United Nations report. While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky. The ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed. E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years. The new forecasting method does not predict any major E1 Nino events in the next two years,although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
单选题
The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E 1 Nino a few months in advance.
【正确答案】
B
【答案解析】句子中的特征词Columbia University researchers和a few months in advance作为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句，可见问题句的内容中有与原文不一致的地方，判断该句“不正确”。
单选题
The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past E1 Ni?o occurrences and sea-surface temperatures.
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】句子中出现的核心结构EI Nino occurrences和sea—surface temperatures作为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句，还需要辨别the researchers是否就是The Cotumbia University researchers，而前文中出现的就是The Columbia University researchers，问题句的内容都在原文中有n乎应的内容，判断该句的说法正确。
单选题
The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences.
【正确答案】
C
【答案解析】该题涉及的内容和前面出现的问题有关，题干中出现的特征词(the first)，因此判断对 该词的确认是关键。利用该词作为答案线索，这样发现文章中没有这个词出现。因为该句是概括总结句，再利用句子出现的核心结构sea—surface temperatures和the past EI Nino occurrences作为答案线索，发现涉及这两个结构的句子所表达的句意都与问题句的内容无关，判断问题句的说法“没提到”。
单选题
Weare's contribution in predicting E 1 Nino, was highly praised by other meteorologists.
单选题
According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1991 and 1997 affected 200 million Chinese people.
【正确答案】
B
【答案解析】句子中出现的特征词chinese report，in 1991 and 1997和200 million Chinese people作 为答案线索，这样发现答案相关句：When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997，200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone，according to a 2002 United Nations report．(该句的内容与问题句的内容不一致。)
单选题
It takes about eight months for E1 Nino to reach its peak.