| Futurologists have not been very
precise about how and how much digital media will change our lives. Most of
comments have focused on the expectation that consumers will soon be able to use
their TV or PC to shop, bank and order movies from their armchairs. Commentators
envisage more dramatic change to everyday life. Nucholas Negroponte, director of
MIT's Media Lab, believes that a key development over the next five years will
be the "personalization" of the computer, with wearable devices such as a
wrist-mounted TV, computer and telephone. Peter Cochrane, head of research at
British Telecom, looks further ahead, asking us to "imagine a virtual reality
interface, with your visual context flooded by information from
spectacle-mounted or contact lenses augmented by directional audio input,
tactile gloves and prosthetic arms and fingers that will give you the sensation
of touch, resistance and weight". Historically, enthusiasts for new technologies have usually been over-optimistic about the speed of change. Most new technologies take longer to be adopted by the general public than these enthusiast experts, although there have been exceptions: once they had reached critical mass, VCRs and mobile phones took off faster than most experts predicted. Arguably, everyday life in the advanced economies changed more between the 1880s and the 1930s than in the last fifty years or, possibly, the next. Nevertheless, it is valid to talk about a digital "revolution", since the extent of change is dramatic by many standards and digital technology is its biggest single driving force. Even if the enthusiasts overstate how quickly things will change, they may turn out to be right about the scale of that change. At this stage, no one knows how the digital revolution will develop. Although the technology itself is now becoming somewhat more predictable, exactly how, and how fast things will change will depend not Only on technological developments but also on the policies of key commercial and political players, especially in the US, Less predictable is how enthusiastically consumers will take to this technology on an everyday, mass market scale. Least predictable are the sociocultural and geopolitical responses: Will the digital revolution lead to greater international understanding or bitter rivalry? Will it encourage materialism and erode religious belief, or lead to religious backlash? Will it make people happier? |