| Hardly a week goes by without some
advance in technology that would have seemed incredible 50 years ago. And we can
expect the rate of change to accelerate rather than slow down within our
lifetime. The developments in technology are bound to have a dramatic effect on
the future of work. By 2010, new technology will have revolutionized
communications. People will be transmitting messages down telephone lines that
previously would have been sent by post. Not only postmen but also clerks and
secretaries will vanish in a paperfree society. All the routine tasks they
perform will be carried on a tiny silicon chip so that they will be as obsolete
as the horse and cart after the invention of the motor car. One change will make
thousands, if not millions, redundant. Even people in traditional professions, where expert knowledge has been the key, are unlikely to escape the effects of new technology. Instead of going to a solicitor, you might go to a computer which is programmed with all the most up-to-date legal information. Doctors, too, will find that an electronic competitor will be able to carry out a much quicker and more accurate diagnosis and recommend more efficient courses of treatment. In education, teachers will be largely replaced by teaching machines far more knowledgeable than any human being. Most learning will take place in the home via video conferencing. Children will still go to school though, until another place is created where they can make friends anti develop social skills. What can we do to avoid the threat of unemployment? We shouldn't hide our heads in the sand. Unions will try to stop change but they will be fighting a losing battle. People should get computer literate as this just might save them from professional extinction. After all, there will be a few jobs left in law, education and medicine for those few individuals who are capable of writing and programming the software of the future. Strangely enough, there will still be jobs like rubbish collection and cleaning as it is tough to programme tasks which are largely unpredictable. |