单选题
It"s a cliche—but true—that a huge obstacle to a stronger economic recovery is the lack of confidence in a strong recovery. If consumers and businesses were more confident, they would be spending, hiring and lending more freely. Instead, we"re submerged with reports suggesting that, because the recession was so deep, it will take many years to regain anything like the pre-crisis prosperity. Just last week, for example, the McKinsey Global Institute released a study estimating that the country needs 21 million additional jobs by 2020 to reduce the unemployment rate to 5 percent. The study was skeptical that this would happen. Pessimism and slow growth become a vicious cycle.
Frustrated confidence most obviously reflects the intensity and shock of the financial collapse and the ensuing recession, including the devastating housing collapse. But there"s another, less appreciated cause: disillusion with modern economics. Probably without realizing it, most Americans had accepted the fundamental promises of contemporary economics. These were: First, we know enough to prevent another Great Depression; second, although we can"t prevent every recession, we know enough to ensure sustained and, for the most part, strong recoveries. These propositions, approved by most economists, had worked themselves into society"s belief structure.
Embracing them does not rule out economic disappointments, setbacks, worries or risks. But for most people most of the time, it does prevent economic disaster. People felt protected. If you stop believing them, then you act differently. You begin shielding yourself, as best you can, against circumstances and dangers that you can"t foresee but that you fear are there. You become more cautious. You hesitate more before making a big commitment—buying a home or car, if you"re a consumer; hiring workers, if you"re an employer; starting a new business, if you"re an entrepreneur; or making loans, if you"re a banker.
One disturbing fact from the McKinsey report is this. The number of new businesses, a traditional source of jobs, was down 23 percent in 2010 from 2007; the level was the lowest since 1983, when America had about 75 million fewer people. Large corporations are not doing anything. They have about $2 trillion of cash and securities, which could be used for hiring and investing in new products.
It"s not that economics achieved nothing. The emergency measures taken against the crisis in many countries—exceptionally low interest rates, "stimulus" programs of extra spending and tax cuts—probably avoided another Depression. But it"s also true that there"s now no consensus among economists as to how to strengthen the recovery. Economists suffer from what one of them calls "the pretense-of-knowledge syndrome." They act as if they understand more than they do and presume that their policies, whether of the left or right, have benefits more predictable than they actually are. It"s worth remembering that the recovery"s present slowdown is occurring despite measures taken to speed it up.
So modern economics has been oversold, and the public is now disbelieving. The disillusion feeds stubbornly low confidence.
单选题
The McKinsey report is mentioned to show ______
【正确答案】
C
【答案解析】[解析] 全文第一句是本文的主题句，本文分析了影响经济更强劲复苏的一个心理因素——消费者和生产者信心的缺乏。作者在第一段提到，有些报告不断告诉我们说，经济复苏暂时无望，McKinsey Global Institute公布的一份报告中就充满着这样的悲观情绪。事实上，从第一段来看，McKinsey Global Institute的报告仅仅是一个例子，用来说明例子前的那一句话说明的现象，即we"re submerged with reports suggesting that, because the recession was so deep, it will take many years to regain anything like the pre-crisis prosperity.可见，作者提到McKinsey Global Institute的报告是为了说明美国人对目前经济复苏的悲观情绪。
单选题
A mistaken idea of modern economics is that ______
【正确答案】
D
【答案解析】[解析] 作者在第二段提到并批评了当代经济学的两个错误命题，这两个命题的一个核心思想是：我们知道采取什么样的措施来对付经济衰退，并保持经济持续繁荣。作者指出，这样的思想已经worked themselves into society"s belief structure，也就是说它们已经为人们深信不疑。但是，作者紧接着在第三段第一句指出，接受这样的命题并不能使我们免受经济灾难的侵害。作者在最后一段继续批评当代经济学理论给人们造成的错觉，作者认为经济的发展有不可预测性，所制定并实施的经济措施未必能取得预期效果。因此树立信心、敢于花钱、雇人、发展经济对经济的复苏更加重要。
单选题
Were they more open-minded about economic disasters, people would ______
单选题
The "pretense-of-knowledge syndrome" refers to ______
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】[解析] 早在第二段作者就批评当代经济学的一些理论，因为它们认为我们知道如何避免经济危机，如何保持经济的持续繁荣。在倒数第二段，作者再次提到当代经济学理论的一些缺陷，在作者看来，经济学家们过高地看待了自己的经济知识，过高地指望他们采取的经济措施所产生的效果。因此作者在最后一段指出，modern economics has been oversold，这里oversell原意为“出售过多”，这里意为“过分吹嘘”，也就是说，经济学家夸大了经济学理论所能产生的效果。这种现象被称作the pretense-of-knowledge syndrome，这里knowledge指经济学家们认为自己知道经济如何运转。