Source Text 2:
The war rhetoric implies that America and Japan are directly suppressing their currencies to boost exports and suppress imports. That would be a zero-sum game which could degenerate into protectionism and a collapse in trade. But this is not what they are doing. When central banks have lowered their short-term interest rate to near zero and thus exhausted their conventional monetary methods, they turn to unconventional means such as QE (expansion of the money supply) or convincing people that inflation will rise. Both actions should lower real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates. This may now be happening in Japan. The principal goal of this policy is to stimulate domestic spending and investment. As a by-product, lower real rates usually weaken the currency as well, and that in turn tends to depress imports. But if the policy is successful in reviving domestic demand, it will eventually lead to higher imports. Aggressive monetary expansion in a big economy suffering from weak demand and subdued inflation is good for the rest of the world, not bad. The International Monetary Fund concluded that America's first rounds of monetary laxity boosted its trading partners' output by as much as 0.3%. The dollar did weaken, but that became a motivation for Japan's stepped-up assault on deflation. The combined monetary boost on opposite sides of the Pacific has been a powerful elixir for global investor confidence.
此番战争言论,言下之意是美日在直接压低本国货币以促进出口抑制进口。这就是一场零和博弈,结果就 是保护主义盛行,贸易崩溃。但事实并非如此。美日央行已将短期利率调至接近零,用光了传统的货币政 策工具,于是,他们只好使用非传统的货币政策,如采用量化宽松政策(也就是扩大货币供应量)或说服 人们通货膨胀率会上升。二者都会降低真实(消除通胀因素)利率。这正是日本现在的情况。该政策的主 要目的是刺激内需和投资。更低的利率常常也会附带压低货币,从而抑制进口。但如果该政策能重振内 需,就能最终增加进口。一个需求疲软、通胀率低的大国,大幅采取货币扩张政策对其他各国并非坏事, 而是好事。国际货币基金组织(IMF)称,美国第一轮货币宽松使其贸易伙伴国出口增幅高达0.3%。美元 的确贬值了,但这也促使日本加大力度遏制通胀紧缩。太平洋两岸的货币扩张成为提振全球投资者信心的 灵丹妙药。