单选题 Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time? The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term. Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past. Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultation and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices)rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0. 25%- 0. 5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed. One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

单选题 The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is ______.

单选题 It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if_____.

单选题 The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ______.

单选题 We can draw a conclusion from the text that ______.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】解析：本题是推理题。所得出的结论肯定是没有在文中明确表述过的。从文章最后一段来看，石油价格的冲击不再那么令人震惊了，因为作者说：“我们不能为石油价格的上涨而失眠的另一个原因是石油价格上涨没有发生在整体农产品价格上涨和全球需求过度的环境下，这与20世纪70年代的石油涨价不同。”这句话也表明B项“通货膨胀似乎和油价冲击无关”是错误的选项。C、D两项的内容在文章中没有表述。

单选题 From the text we can see that the writer seems ______.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】解析：本题是分析判断题。本题要求推断作者的语气和态度。文章最后一段是最明显的线索。另外第3段第1句也指出：“Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s．”(但也有很好的理由盼望现在的经济后果会比20世纪70年代的情况乐观。)。第4段第1句也表明了对石油涨价后果持乐观态度的原因，因为“Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were，and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price．”(富有经济体对石油的依赖性较以前有所下降，因而对石油价格变动的敏感度也降低了。)