| For all his vaunted talents, Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has never had much of a reputation as an
economic forecaster. In fact, he shies away from making the
precise-to-the-decimal-point predictions that many other economists thrive on.
Instead, he owes his success as a monetary policymaker to his ability to sniff
out threats to the economy and manipulate interest rates to dampen the dangers
he perceives. Now, those instincts are being put to the test. Many Fed watchers--and some policymakers inside the central bank itself--are beginning to wonder whether Greenspan has lost his touch. Despite rising risks to the economy from a swooning stock market and soaring oil prices that could hamper growth, the Greenspan-led Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to leave interest rates unchanged on Sept. 24. But in a rare dissent, two of the Fed's 12 policymakers broke ranks and voted for a cut in rates--Dallas Fed President Robert D. McTeer Jr. and central bank Governor Edward M. Gramlich. The move by McTeer, the Fed's self-styled "Lonesome Dove", was no surprise. But Gramlich's was. This was the first time that the monetary moderate had voted against the chairman since joining the Fed's board in 1997. And it was the first public dissent by a governor since 1995. Despite the split vote, it's too soon to count the maestro of monetary policy out. Greenspan had good reasons for not cutting interest rates now. And by acknowledging in the statement issued after the meeting that the economy does indeed face risks, Greenspan left the door wide open to a rate reduction in 'the future. Indeed, former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley thinks chances are good that the central bank might even cut rates before its next scheduled meeting on Nov. 6, the day after congressional elections. So why didn't the traditionally risk-averse Greenspan cut rates now as insurance against the dangers dogging growth? For one thing, he still thinks the economy is in recovery mode. Consumer demand remains buoyant and has even been turbocharged recently by a new wave of mortgage refinancing. Economists reckon that homeowners will extract some ＄100 billion in cash from their houses in the second half of this year. And despite all the corporate gloom, business spending has shown signs of picking up, though not anywhere near as strongly as the Fed would like. Does that mean that further rate cuts are off the table? Hardly. Watch for Greenspan to try to time any rate reductions to when they'll have the most psychological pop on business and investor confidence. That's surely no easy feat, but it's one that Greenspan has shown himself capable of more than once in the past. Don't be surprised if he surprises everyone again. |