| When it comes to the economy, pessimism
is in and good old American optimism is out. From the headlines in the
newspapers to the coffee shop chatter, it seems that there is little good to say
about the economy. Bad enough that the news about Iraq, winter storms and the
escalation of terror alerts continue to keep people on edge. Reports of state
budget deficits and threats of major cutbacks in services such as education,
health care and police also' make people nervous. The latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll reflects the new pessimism. Asked early this past week how they would rate economic conditions in the country today, just one in three--34%--said they consider it good. That's down 10 percentage points from December, when 44% rated the economy good and 20 points lower than September when 54% said they thought economic conditions were good. Moreover,' when asked to look ahead a year from now, those people willing to say things will get better are also dwindling in numbers. A thin majority of 55% said they expected economic conditions to be better by this time next year. Not bad on the surface. But looking back just two months to December, 65%--or two of three--believed that things would improve in a year. And going back six months to September, 71% expressed optimism for economic improvement. So the seeds of discontent are out there and they could set off a political firestorm for President Bush if economic conditions don't start getting better soon. Or more importantly, if the American people don't start feeling better soon. Regardless of what the statistics say about how good the economy might be getting, the American people have to feel it. And often, feelings lag behind numbers. Indeed, most people believe that the economy is in recession. Statistically it is not. Case in point: On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the economy grew at a 1.4% rate in the final quarter of last year--twice as fast as the government first estimated. Major factors in the upward revision in the gross domestic product were stronger investment by businesses in building up stockpiles of unsold goods and a slight boost to consumer spending, the main force keeping the economy going. But while that report is interesting, and perhaps a source of hope that things aren't as bad as they seem, more tangible examples of economic improvement are needed--solid gains in the stock market, rehiring by plants that have been laying off workers, new business expansion. The USA TODAY poll further shows that nervousness about Iraq and a still-sluggish economy are taking a political toll on Bush: His job approval rating is 57%, his lowest since before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Surely, what happens with Iraq will be a major factor in the president's political fortunes next year, but if people continue to be pessimistic about the economy when Bush is in the midst of running for a second term, it will be difficult to be optimistic about his chances of winning. |