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A century ago, a cut or
even a decayed tooth were causes for alarm, as they could lead to pneumonia,
against which doctors could only offer home-made cures, crude surgery or,
finally, their prayers. Today, these perils have been stopped by the medical
weapons of 20th century—and as a result, man has the potential for living longer
than at any time in history. In the past 100 years, the life expectancy in a
developed country has almost doubled. Researchers believe the millennium will
usher in Century of Biotechnology, as computing power and knowledge of the
genetic code come together.
Here are come of the biggest
developments in medicine that can be expected over the next
quarter-century.
1. Diagnosing ailments will be simpler, faster,
more accurate and cheaper, using noninvasive scanners, teleconferencing and the
Internet. Farther down the track—perhaps 10～15 years—are biochips, which will
monitor your DNA and analyze it for genetic anomalies that could bring you fatal
diseases or have and adverse reaction to certain drugs. You could then make
lifestyle changes enabling you to avoid exposure to conditions or substances
known to trigger the disease.
2. Advances in molecular biology
mean that scientists now know more than ever about the genetic causes of disease
and how to garget them. Over the next decade or so, enzyme inhibitors and gene
therapy will make great inroads against different kinds of cancer, heart disease
and even brain diseases such as Alzheimer's. The surgeon of the future may look
back on the present ear with the same sense of distaste as his present
counterpart views the blood-soaked sawbones of the 19th century. In the coming
decades, surgery will be carried out only as a last resort and as minimally as
possible. Robots will help perform long or tricky operations such as organ
transplants. Nano-probes may be used to clear the arteries free of dangerous
plaque build-ups. Another possibility: microchip implants and transplants into
the central nervous system to help treat disease like brain tumors, epilepsy,
movement disorders and stroke.
3. Outbreaks of disease that
previously were localized have the ability to spread quickly, thanks to modern
jet travel; a person incubating a new strain of flu in one continent can take it
to another in a matter of hours. In addition, feeding and housing a population
of six billion has brought Man into closer and closer proximity to animals and
rain forests, exposing humans to viruses that "leap" the species barrier, such
as mad-cow disease and hemorrhagic fever.
On the hand,
microbiology and epidemiology are so advanced that scientists can now quickly
spot a new disease (AIDS was detected only three years after it was fist
identified) and find out how it is transmitted. This can help in the development
of preventative measures, although finding a cure or a vaccine are different
matters, as the elusive search for a "silver bullet" against AIDS has shown. In
wealthy western countries, the risk to life may be lifestyle. Obesity and
depression, caused by excessive eating, loneliness and alienation, may become
the twin biggest causes of death. (518 words)