单选题 Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.
To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey — in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 — giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.
Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10- to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.
The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feed- back and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.
Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.
For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when (or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually "emerged".

单选题 What we are faced with at present can be best described as a revolution in______.

单选题 The purpose of the Delphi survey is to ______.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】分析推理题。文章中提到Delphi survey是在第二段。该段第一句首先指出：To anticipate developments in this field…(为了预测这一领域的发展……)，引入了一个技术预测机构，接着就说明这个机构所用方法即Delphi survey的情况。据此即可推知，这一调查方法的目的显然就是预测技术的发展。而后文对这一方法的说明也可印证这一点，故答案是[A]，其中的foresee就是原文中的anticipate或forecast。其余三项根据文意和常识即可迅速加以排除。

单选题 Market researchers focus on the technologies that will emerge in ______.

单选题 Various research methods are employed in order to______.

【正确答案】 C

【答案解析】分析推理题。文章第四段指出，该预测机构用了各种不同的研究方法，并且简要交代了各种方法的具体应用。而在第五段最后一句，作者指出：By using multiple methods…the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates(通过运用多种方法……预测机构可以得出更加可靠和有用的预测)，这既是结果，也是运用多种方法的目的。其中的reliable(可靠的)在意思上相当于[C]项中的(increase the)accuracy(准确性)。其余三项都属于原文中已有的词句，都属于方法的应用而非目的。

单选题 The job of the futurists is to ______.

【正确答案】 B

【答案解析】分析推理题。文中提到futurist(未来主义者，未来学家)是在最后一段，该段倒数第二句指出：…for their judgments as to…the economic market for it(然后我们将这一技术列表交给我们的未来学家小组，由他们判断每种技术发展进入主流的时间或者是否能够进入主流，每种技术发展出现的几率，以及这种技术发展经济市场的预估规模)。将未来学家的这些工作综合起来可知，他们的目的无疑就是“预测未来的重要技术”，因此本题答案是[B]。其余三个选项中，[A]中的frequency(频率，发生次数)与该句中的probability(可能性)不符；[C]项指“为每种技术准备好潜在市场”，属于无据发挥，其中的prepare 和potential两词在文中都未提及；[D]项指“调整新技术出现的时间”，则明显不合常识。