单选题

Which of the following would be most useful as a leading indicator to signal the start of an economic recovery?

A、 The narrowing of the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate
B、 A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
C、 An increase in aggregate real personal income (less transfer payments)

【正确答案】 B

【答案解析】

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading indicator of economic activity. A decrease in these claims is an indicator of rehiring, which signals the start of an economic recovery.