Although you'll probably live longer than you imagine, don't count on being healthier. The need for and the cost of health care typically increase dramatically as you age. On average, for example, a 40-year-old man consumes about $ 2 000 a year in health care services, whereas a typical 75-year-old consumes five times that much. That's why, as the population ages, huge inflationary pressures are put on the health care system.
How big will those pressures be in the next century? Over the past 40 years, health care costs have risen an average of 70 percent faster than the general rise in prices -- and that was before the boomers started m grow old. The federal government predicts that by 2030, as boomers enter their 70s and 80s, health care spending will top $16 trillion, representing nearly 1 out of every 3 dollars in the economy.
Who will pay the bill? No one knows for sure, but it's a good guess that the next century's elderly will become responsible for paying a much larger share of their own costs than their counterparts do now. Qualification requirements for Medicaid nursing-home benefits, for example, are likely to be tightened. Since the cost of a nursing-home bed is projected to be $ 97 000 a year by 2030, those who don't make provision for this potential liability could easily become impoverished.
Medicare, which covers medical costs for the elderly, is also likely to become less generous -- limiting the conditions and treatments it covers, for example. Reform is virtually certain, even after assuming huge increases in the efficiency of the health care system, the actuaries(保险计算员) at Medicare project the system will lose money and be unable to continue within 10 years.