For many nations, the worst of the economic slump is over. "The world economy has bottomed out," notes Rudi Dornbusch, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) economist who takes a monthly look at global economic trends for a number of corporations. After a slow first half, the United States' recovery has accelerated. Some economists are talking of a real 4 per cent or better growth rate this quarter. The monthly survey of members of the National Association of Purchasing Management found a "healthy increase" in both manufacturing and the overall economy in November. There is something of a debate among forecasters as to whether the growth in the first half of 1993 will remain vigorous or slow down as it did in the winter of 1993. Mr. Dornbusch is cautious, suggesting 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent real growth in the next 12 months. "Easy money will countervail fiscal restraint," he says. Business is picking up in Canada and Britain also. Canada should have around 2.7 per cent real growth this year. The new British budget, announced this week, assumes a real growth rate next year of 2.5 per cent. But on the European continent, the situation is less happy. "The economic climate has deteriorated further, albeit at a declining rate," a European Community report commented recently. "There are still few signs of a cyclical turning point being reached." "The Bundesbank continues to call the shots," Dorbusch says, referring to Germany's central bank. It has been gradually lowering interest rates all year, but not fast enough to satisfy its neighbors. Dornbusch argues that real interest rates, which take into account inflation, are too high in Germany. Producer prices have fallen for six months there, so interest rates of 6.4 per cent are "extremely high for an economy that is not growing," he says. For 18 months economists have been revising their forecasts down for continental Europe. Dornbusch figures," The bottom may have been reached, but a strong upswing is implausible." The MIT economist criticizes the French government for strangling the economy with high interest rates in order to keep the franc strong against the German Deutsche mark. As a result, Dornbusch predicts, France will experience rising unemployment in 1993,1994 and 1995. And mass unemployment will worsen France's budget deficit and the prospect for tax cuts or more government spending to boost the economy. "France will do very poorly," he concludes.
判断题
Rudi Dornbusch has noticed that the world economy has fallen to its record lows of the recession.