单选题
An investor makes a $2.45 million investment in a venture capital project that has an expected payoff of $7 million at the end of three years. The cost capital is 15%. If the conditional annual failure probabilities over the first three years are 25%, 15%, and 12%, the expected NPV of the project is closest to:
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】[解析] 该投资项目在3年后成功的概率为：
(1-25%)×(1-15%)×(1-12%)=56.1%
预期投资回报的期望值=7000000×56.1%=3927000(美元)
(1-25%)×(1-15%)×(1-12%)=56.1%
预期投资回报的期望值=7000000×56.1%=3927000(美元)