【正确答案】展望未来，我认为将出现有可能改变当今世界的重大变化。这些变化包括大规模替代人工的机器人，以及气候变化导致海平面上升，淹没沿海地区。这些变化将对全球领导人提出巨大的挑战。生产机器人的成本已经大幅度下降。机器人能够完成各种各样复杂的任务，在很多工业领域中正在取代人工。自动化已经使美国的许多制造业部门，特别是汽车制造业的工人失去工作。我认为，在不久的将来，机器人有可能取代经济活动中大部分人工工作。 如果你有特殊技能或接受过专门教育，那么现在是你当工人的好时候。因为你可以用技术创造价值，增加自己的收入。但如果你只有一般的技能，你现在当工人就很糟糕，因为机器人正在快速掌握这些技能，而这意味着你将失业。据估计，在今后20年中，47％的美国工人的工作有可能被自动化所代替。目前，医疗保险和养老金是靠就业人员交纳来实现的。但是，如果未来人口的很大一部分由于自动化而失业，社会将不得不寻找其他途径来提供医疗保险和养老金。如果找不到其他途径，那些由于机器人而失业的群体可能会造成社会和政治动荡。 谈到气候变化，几乎所有的一流科学家都认为确实存在全球变暖，而且由于全球变暖，将产生更加频繁、更加严重的风暴，气候条件将发生变化，海水变暖和南极积冰的融化将造成海平面上升。世界各地海平面上升的速度会不一样，但是大部分科学家预测，到2100年，海平面将比现在的水平升高一米。近几十年来，移居沿海大城市的人口日益增加，现在全世界有大约六亿人口在沿海地区居住。但是，气候变化造成的海平面上升对全球的一些大都市造成威胁，这些城市包括纽约、波士顿、威尼斯和东京。上升的海平面将淹没这些城市的一部分。需要花几十万亿美元才能重新安置数百万流离失所的居民。 现在出现了一个新的潜在问题，即气候变化难民。这个问题已经引起了公众的广泛关切。人们担心，由于气温升高，风暴更加肆虐，或者海平面上升，许多人将被迫逃离日益恶化的家园。这将加快人口大规模转移，而富裕国家又不愿意接受难民。这些变化可能会改变现代生活。我刚才介绍的两种情况中任何一种都可能带来巨大的变化，从而导致政治动荡。现在，人们不应该只看到小处，并认为变化将是缓慢的。恰恰相反，领导人应当往大处看，承认技术和气候变化将是急剧和巨大的。 这就要求改善治理，必须终止赢者通吃的规则。如果人们认为，某一个社会群体不公平地获得了更多的经济和政治利益，那么政治和社会冲突将加剧。由此产生的地方或地区性冲突升级为全球性冲突的可能性确实存在。这就要求全球领导人采取更好的办法，解决这些问题，化解冲突。找到应对这些挑战的机制应当成为国际社会的首要任务。

【答案解析】原文： The slowing of China’s economic growth has many causes. In my view, it is a healthy development, resulting from a necessary change in China’s growth model. Since the beginning of China’s growth miracle, a large part of the country’s development has been directed from the center. This top-down approach has focused on heavy industry, infrastructure, and the promotion of exports. This growth model had its roots in central planning, but China also encourages market liberalization and openness to international competition, thus making significant gains in productivity and technological upgrading. This strategy has been incredibly successful: The Chinese economy is two-and-a-half times bigger today than a decade ago. However, the top-down strategy has its limits. The share of economic output going into manufacturing, infrastructure, and exports is too large to be sustained, and there is overemphasis on investment and exports rather than on consumption. Recognizing these limits, China is working to make the transition to a bottom-up growth model, focused on the development of service industries, that is, retail trade, health, education, finance, and transportation. Services currently make up about half of the Chinese economy, compared to about four-fifths of the economy of the United States. As productivity in services generally does not grow as quickly as in manufacturing, this transition will involve slower economic growth. The experience of some old American industrial cities like Pittsburg offers useful lessons to China as it goes through this crucial economic transition. The economy of Pittsburgh was built on heavy manufacturing, a model that eventually reached its limits. And heavy industry took a heavy toll on its environment. Pittsburgh and other industrial American cities that succeeded in reviving their economies did so primarily by turning from manufacturing to services. In these cities, the government and the private sector worked together to revitalize downtowns, develop tourist attractions and conference facilities, clean up the environment, and improve transportation links and other critical infrastructure. They then attract businesses in clean sectors like medicine, technology, finance, and retail. Strengthening education was the key, as it has benefits like attracting and maintaining skilled workforces and setting up high-tech companies. Pittsburgh’s redevelopment was greatly helped by hosting several major universities, particularly the University of Pittsburgh, which led efforts to build research facilities where old factories had once stood. A symbol of Pittsburgh’s transformation is the former U.S. steel building in downtown Pittsburgh, the headquarters of a steel company. It is now the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, which is the largest employer in the whole region. How can China make a transition to a more service-oriented economy, like Pittsburgh has done? Reducing subsidies to exports and heavy industry, while continuing reforms to make it easier to start new businesses is a critical step. China can also enter into partnerships with foreign companies that can bring essential expertise in various fields. Reviving old American industrial cities like Pittsburg offers a useful lesson to China, which is the building of a strong middle class. Middle-class households are the primary market for a wide range of services, from education to healthcare to retail to entertainment. For American cities like Pittsburg, attracting middle-class consumers involved improving public infrastructure and education, reducing crime, and increasing job opportunities. In the case of China, to build a strong middle class, it needs to strengthen the social safety net, as this will give households income security so that they can save less and spend more. It also needs to reduce excessive government regulations and provide more consumer choices. A strong Chinese middle class will stimulate the development of new services and give the bottom-up approach a chance to succeed.