单选题 Every so often we read of a star trader who lost so much money that he gave back all the profits he made over several years and shook his bank to its foundations. How does this happen? Were the bank's risk managers mistaken about this trader's skill? Maybe. But recent research suggests an alternative explanation—that the winning streak changed the trader. Human biology can help explain what drives traders to acts of folly.
When we take on risk, including financial risk, we don't just think about it; we also prepare for it physically. Body and brain fuse as a single functioning unit. Consider what happens on the trading floor when news flashes across the wire. Traders' senses are placed on high alert. Breathing accelerates; a thumping heart gears up for action. Muscles tense, stomachs knot, and sweating begins, a sign of anticipatory cooling. We do not regard information as computers do, dispassionately. We register it physically.
My colleagues at the University of Cambridge and I have conducted a series of experiments on London trading floors and found that during a winning streak, our biology can overreact and our risk taking can become pathological. When males enter competition, their testosterone levels surge, increasing their hemoglobin and hence their blood's capacity to carry oxygen, and in the brain increasing their confidence and appetite for risk. The winner emerges with even higher levels of testosterone, and this heightens his chances of winning yet again, leading to a positive feedback loop known in animal behavior as the winner effect. For athletes preparing to compete, traders buying risky assets or even politicians gearing up for an election, this is a moment of transformation, what the French in the Middle Ages called "the hour between dog and wolf".
At some point in this upward spiral of testosterone and victory, however, judgment becomes impaired. Effective risk taking morphs into overconfidence, and traders on a winning streak may take on positions of ever increasing size with ever worsening risk-reward trade-offs. What happens to traders' biology if these positions blow up? Their stress response goes into overdrive. The uncertainty people feel during a crisis can raise stress hormones and promote feelings of anxiety, a selective recall of disturbing memories and a tendency to find danger where none exists. The stress response may foster irrational risk aversion, impairing a person's ability to manage positions taken on in more optimistic times.
In short, traders' biology may cause them to take too much risk when on a winning streak and then too little when the market needs it most during a crisis. Risk managers at banks need to understand this biology. The statistical tools they rely on cannot catch the subterranean shifts taking place in their traders' risk appetite.
Risk managers could, however, learn from sports scientists how to spot and manage exuberance, fatigue and stress. They may have to manage their traders much as coaches manage their athletes. And that means occasionally pulling them off the field until their biology resets.
单选题 What is the main idea of the passage?
  • A. Biology can save banks from disasters.
  • B. Biology can help explain traders' foolish acts and it is useful in managing traders.
  • C. Risk managers should consider regularly pulling traders off the trading floor until their biology resets.
  • D. Both mental activity and physical preparation are involved when we take on risk.
【正确答案】 B
【答案解析】[解析] 对文章主旨大意的归纳能力。文章从生物学的角度解释了致使交易员做出蠢事的原因,并在结尾处点明这项研究的意义——风险经理如能了解其中的生理机制,可更有效地管理交易员,降低交易风险,选项B较好地体现了文章的主要思想。选项A错在save banks from disasters的说法夸大了这项研究的现实意义。选项C中的regularly pulling traders off the trading floor篡改了原文用词,扭曲了原文意思。选项D说法本身并没有错,但只是文章阐释的细节,并非文章主旨。
单选题 The sentence "We register it physically." (para. 2) can best be replaced by ______.
  • A. We show it actually
  • B. We process it mentally
  • C. We record it apparently
  • D. We produce it intentionally
【正确答案】 A
【答案解析】[解析] 根据上下文正确理解词语的能力。原甸位于第二段结尾。仅通过句子本身来判断register的意思有一定难度,该词常用义“登记,注册”在文中似乎解释不通,这里转义为“表达,表现出……”。考生可根据交易员得到新消息时的紧张状态进行推测。呼吸加快、心跳骤升、肌肉紧张等都是明显的身体上的表现,与计算机的不动声色(dispassionately)形成鲜明对比,比较四个选项,可确定选项A正确。
单选题 We can know from the research done by the author and his colleagues that during a winning streak ______.
  • A. people tend to cope with challenges and risks in a more relaxed manner
  • B. traders are more likely to take on positions with desirable risk-reward trade-offs
  • C. the surge of testosterone levels can lead to overconfidence and irrational risk-taking
  • D. the surge of testosterone levels can help people make better judgment by increasing their blood's capacity to carry oxygen
【正确答案】 C
【答案解析】[解析] 对文章基本内容的理解。相关内容见第三、四段。第三段介绍作者在实验中的发现,向读者详细说明当人们处在winning streak时,随着睾丸激素水平的上升,其生理和心理会产生怎样的变化。第四段指出这些变化对人们的判断和行动所造成的影响。对比各选项与第三、四两段内容,可判定选项C正确。
单选题 When the author cites the expression "the hour between dog and wolf" (para. 3), he is trying to convey that this is the moment ______.
  • A. when a trader's effective risk-taking changes into overconfidence and reckless behavior
  • B. when a self-confident trader becomes unconfident and pessimistic
  • C. when a gentle trader becomes short-tempered and violent
  • D. when a risk-seeking trader becomes risk averse and prudent
【正确答案】 A
【答案解析】[解析] 根据上下文正确理解句子的能力。the hour between dog and wolf在结构上具有承上启下的作用,对它的理解应联系第三、四两段的内容。需要注意的是,从字面上看,这个说法的意思是“好坏变化的分界”;而本文针对的群体交易员,且第四段中介绍的影响又都是负面的,作者想借以说明的应该是一种朝着消极方面发生的变化,选项A正确。文章的着眼点是“风险”,与自信、乐观、脾气好坏等无关,选项B和C可排除。risk-seeking与risk averse之间并无好坏之分,更谈不上由好变坏,选项D也可排除。
单选题 Which of the following statements about traders' biology CANNOT be true?
  • A. Testosterone is the key chemical that affects traders' biology on a winning streak.
  • B. Traders' biology may cause them to take too little risk when the market needs it most during a crisis.
  • C. Understanding of traders' biology is necessary for risk managers at banks.
  • D. Traders' biology can be controlled and adjusted by risk managers.
【正确答案】 D
【答案解析】[解析] 对文章基本内容的理解。此题适用排除法。选项A,B和C的说法可分别在第三段和第五段中找到依据。根据生物学常识判断,人在某种情况下的生理反应是基于一系列复杂的生化变化的,这种变化是难以人为操控和调试的,选项D的说法很是荒谬。