Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, and their application requires an elaborate (2)_____ of cause and effect. Others are relatively simple, (3)_____ most developments in the economy to one or two basic factors. Many economists, for example, believe that changes in the supply of money (4)_____ the rate of growth of general business activity. Others (5)_____ a central role to investment in new facilities—housing, industrial plants, highways, and so forth. In the United States, where consumers (6)_____ such a large share of economic activity, some economy believe that consumer decisions to (7)_____ or save provide the principal (8)_____ to the future course of the entire economy. Obviously the theory that a forecaster applies is of (9)_____ importance to the forecasting process; it (10)_____ his line of investigation, the statistics he will regard as most important, and many of the techniques he will apply. Although economic theory may determine the general (11)_____ of a forecast, judgment also often plays an important role. A forecaster may decide that the circumstances of the moment are (12)_____ and that a forecast produced by the (13)_____ statistical methods should be modified to take account of special current circumstances. This is particularly necessary when some event outside the Usual run of economic activity has an a (14)_____ economic effect. For example, forecasts of 1987 economic activity in the United States were more accurate when the analyst correctly foresaw that the exchange value of the dollar would (15)_____ sharply during the year that consumer spending would slacken, and that (16)_____ rates would rise only moderately. None of these conclusions followed (17)_____ purely economic analysis; they all required judgment as to future decisions (18)_____, an economist may decide to adjust an economic forecast that was made by traditional methods to take account of other unique (19)_____; he may, for example, decide that consumers will (20)_____ their spending patterns because of special circumstances such as rising price of imports or fear of threatened shortages.
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】解析：考查上下文语义衔接与形容词辨析。所填词欲说明经济预测一般以什么理论为基础，后面句子Some theories are complicated...Others are relatively simple对这一限定词给予提示，说明这种理论不是唯一的，故首先排除unique"唯一的，独一无二的"；同时排除unified"统一的，一元化的"；peculiar指"奇特的，罕见的"，一般用来描述与众不同的东西，显然不适合于修饰这里的theory；只有specific"特定的"符合题意，表示这种理论是特定的。
【正确答案】
D
【答案解析】解析：考查上下文语义衔接与近义词辨析。空格后的cause and effect提示本句意思是耍弄清楚因果关系，也就是要追溯因果关系，因此选tracing"追溯，调查"。trail作名词时是"痕迹，踪迹"；trap作名词时，意为"陷阱，诡计"，是个形近干扰项；tracking是"跟踪"，常指通过某物留下来的一个记号或一系列记号来追踪。
【正确答案】
B
【答案解析】解析：考查上下文语义衔接与近义词辨析。首先注意所填词用于...sth. to sth.结构，据此排除claiming与crediting，因为claim是"声称，断言"，直接用于claim to do/be结构，credit作"归功于"时一般短语是be credited to。其余ascribe sth. to sb./sth，意思是"归因于，归咎于"；refer sb. to sth．短语是"告诉某人何处寻找信息"；这里是说其他的理论都相对简单，把经济发展主要归因于一两个因素，显然只有ascribing符合文意。
【答案解析】解析：本题考查上下文语义衔接。这一句话和上一句是并列关系，先讲了 Many economists的看法，然后讲Others的看法。因此所填词与ascribe同义复现，有"归因于"之义，同时又符合...sth. to sth.结构，因此选assign sth. to sth．表示"将…归功于"。appoint表示"任命，委派"，用法为appoint sb. to sth．或appoint sb. to do sth.；distribute表示"分发，分给"，用法distribute sth. among/to sb.；dictate是"强行规定，指令，指定"，用法为dictate sth. to sb.。
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】解析：考查上下文语义衔接和近义词辨析。注意所填词的宾语是a large share，推测这句话的意思是消费者在经济活动中占很大一部分，account for的意思是"占据"，由此来排除其他。comprise"构成"的正确搭配为be comprise of; make up用于主动语态，意思是"构成"，be made up of是被动形式；consist of是"由…组成"，显然不符合此处语义。
【答案解析】解析：考查上下文语义衔接。由后面的提示，consumer spending would slacken"消费者支出减少"，可以推断原因是美元交换价值下降，排除了expand和increase，另外，deviate是"背离，偏离"，常和from连用，表示偏离某一标准，所以正确的只有decline。