In hindsight one of the worst things about America"s subprime housing bust is how predictable it was. Subprime borrowers were by definition people of limited means with poor credit histories. Yet economists who have looked at the pattern of payments on subprime mortgages point out that even when house prices topped out and then began to fall, not all subprime borrowers defaulted. Only a minority of borrowers abruptly ceased to make payments, as someone choosing to default would. More typically, payments went from being regular to being erratic: borrowers fell behind, then became current again, only to fall behind once more. Those patterns are indicative of people trying, but struggling, to keep up with their payments. A trio of economists set out to find out what differentiated those borrowers who did not keep up with their payments from the rest. Their answer, according to a new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is simple: numeracy. The economists tracked down a large number of subprime borrowers in New England on whom they already had detailed information, including the terms of their mortgages and their repayment histories. These borrowers were then subjected to a series of questions that required simple calculations about percentages and interest rates. Even accounting for a host of differences between people—including attitudes to risk, income levels and credit scores—those who fell behind on their mortgages were noticeably less numerate than those who kept up with their payments in the same overall circumstances. The least numerate fell behind about 25% of the time. For those who did best on the test, the number of payments they missed was almost 12%. A fifth of the least numerate group had been in foreclosure(the creditor taking possession of a property because the money has not been repaid), but only 7% of those who were more numerically adept had. Surprisingly, the least numerate were not making loan choices that differed much from their peers. They were about as likely to have a fixed-rate mortgage as the more numerically able. They did not borrow a larger share of their income. And loans were about the same fraction of the house"s value. Stephan Meier, one of the study"s authors, reckons that the innumerate may be worse at managing their daily finances, leaving them with little room for manoeuvre when things get difficult. Those better at sums might, for instance, have put a bit more aside in more plentiful times. Normally, such differences might not matter much. But in bleaker circumstances, a small pot of savings may be all that stands between homeownership and foreclosure.
单选题 When house prices drop, most subprime borrowers would
【正确答案】 C
【答案解析】解析:事实细节题。根据when house prices drop定位到第一段,对应句为when house price beganto fall。该段说“即使在房价……,也不是所有次级贷款人都会违约。只有极少的一部分贷款人会突然停止付款”,也就是说大多数人会尽力按时还款,故C项为答案。
单选题 The typical pattern of payment shows that
【正确答案】 D
【答案解析】解析:推理判断题。根据题干和选项定位到第二段。该段先总结还款人的还款规律为“先延期付款,然后当期付款,但很快又开始延期”,并称“从这些还款模式可以看出人们想要尽力还款,但是很困难”,故D项为答案。
单选题 We can infer from the New England research that
【正确答案】 B
【答案解析】解析:推理判断题。根据选项定位到第三、四、五段。第四段称研究表明“延期还款者的计算能力比按期还款者明显要弱”,故B项为答案。
单选题 Stephan Meier holds that the innumerate
【正确答案】 D
【答案解析】解析:事实细节题。根据选项定位到第五、六段。第六段称相对于计算能力好的人,计算能力较差的人处理日常财务能力较差,故少有以备不时之需的积蓄,D项“没有做好提前预防措施”为答案。
单选题 Which of the following is the best title for the text?
【正确答案】 A
【答案解析】解析:主旨大意题。考查全文。本文在提供了一系列研究结果的基础上,提出计算能力是影响还款者还款模式的重要因素,故A项为答案。