单选题 Consider an agreement between France and Germany that will restrict steel production so that maximum economic profit can be realized. The possible outcomes of the agreement are presented in the table below.

	Germany complies	Germany defaults
France complies	France gets [*]34 billion.	France gets [*]14 billion.

	Germany gets [*]33 billion.	Germany gets [*]45 billion.
France defaults	France gets [*]43 billion.	France gets [*]17 billion.

	Germany gets [*]6 billion.	Germany gets [*]18 billion.

Based on the game theory framework, the most likely strategy followed by the two countries with respect to whether they comply with or default on the agreement will be:

A. both countries will default.
B. both countries will comply.
C. one country will default and the other will comply.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】[解析] 假设德国将遵守协议，则如果法国选择遵守协议，法国可以获得340亿欧元；如果法国选择违反协议，法国可以获得430亿欧元。因此，在上述假设条件下，法国将选择违反协议。假设德国将违反协议，则如果法国选择遵守协议，法国可以获得140亿欧元；如果法国选择违反协议，法国可以获得170亿欧元。因此，在上述假设条件下，法国将选择违反协议。由上述分析可知，无论德国违反协议与否，法国均将选择违反协议。假设法国将遵守协议，则如果德国选择遵守协议，德国可以获得330亿欧元；如果德国选择违反协议，德国可以获得450亿欧元。因此，在上述假设条件下，德国将选择违反协议。假设法国将违反协议，则如果德国选择遵守协议，德国可以获得60亿欧元；如果德国选择违反协议，德国可以获得180亿欧元。因此，在上述假设条件下，德国将选择违反协议。由上述分析可知，无论法国违反协议与否，德国均将选择违反协议。综上所述，最终的博弈结果是：两国均将选择违反协议。