单选题
Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.
To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey—in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996—giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.
Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10-to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.
The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.
Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.
For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing me most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when ( or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually "emerged."
单选题
What we are faced with at present can be best described as a revolution in
【正确答案】
D
【答案解析】[解析] 该题为细节题。从第一段最后一句“We are not dealing simply with all Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.”可以看出，我们所面对的不仅是信息革命，而是科技革命，故选D。
单选题
The purpose of the Delphi survey is to
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】[解析] 该题为细节加推理题。从第四段第三句“Trend analysis ...and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts.”可以看出，Delphi调查被用于获取预测信息；本文主要讲的是科技革命，因此可推断进行Delphi调查是为了预测未来科技，故选A。
单选题
Market researchers focus on the technologies that will emerge in
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】[解析] 该题为细节加推理题。从第三段第二句“Forecasts of the next five to 10 years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research...”可以看出，对未来五至十年的预测属于市场调查的范畴，由此可以推断市场调查人员会将注意力集中于来来五至十年将要出现的科技上面，故选A。
单选题
Various research methods are employed in order to
【正确答案】
C
【答案解析】[解析] 该题为细节题。从第五段第二句“By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.”可以看出，通过使用多种方式，而不是依赖单一方式，乔治·华盛顿大学新兴科技预测机构能够做出更加可靠、有效的评估，由此可知，使用多种预测方式是为了提高预测的准确性，故选C。
单选题
The job of the futurist is to
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】[解析] 该题为推理题。从最后一段第二句“We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when (or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it.”可以看出，未来学家的工作是判断每项科技发展进入主流社会的时间以及是否能够进入主流社会，在现实中出现的几率及所需经济市场大小。
选项B不属于未来学家的工作范畴，而属于预测机构的工作；未来学家只是对科技所需的潜在市场做出预测，而非为其做出准备，故排除C；未来学家只是对科技发展进入主流社会的时间做出判断，而非调整，故排除D；故选A。