| For the past two years in Silicon
Valley, the centre of America's technology industry, conference-goers have
entertained themselves playing a guessing game: how many times will a speaker
mention the phrase "long tail"? It is usually a high number, thanks to the
influence of the long-tail theory, which was first developed by Chris Anderson,
the editor of Wired magazine, in an article in 2004. Though technologists and
bloggers chuckle at how every business presentation now has to have its
long-tail section, most are envious of Mr. Anderson, whose brainwave quickly
became the most fashionable business idea around. Whether a blockbuster film, a bestselling novel, or a chart-topping rap song, popular culture idolises the hit. Companies devote themselves to creating them because the cost of distribution and the limits of shelf space in physical shops mean that profitability depends on a high volume of sales. But around the beginning of this century a group of internet companies realised that with endless shelves and a national or even international audience online they could offer a huge range of products—and make money at the same time. The niche, the obscure and the specialist, Mr. Anderson argues, will gain ground at the expense of the hit. As evidence, he points to a drop in the number of companies that traditionally calculate their revenue/sales ratio according to the 80/20 rule—where the top fifth of products contribute four-fifths of revenues. Ecast, a San Francisco digital jukebox company, found that 98% of its 10000 albums sold at least one track every three months. Expressed in the language of statistics, the experiences of Ecast and other companies such as Aragon, an online bookseller, suggest that products down in the long tail of a statistical distribution, added together, can be highly profitable. The internet helps people find their way to relatively obscure material with recommendations and reviews by other people, (and for those willing to have their artistic tastes predicted by a piece of software) computer programs which analyse past selections. Long-tail enthusiasts argue that the whole of culture will benefit, not just commercial enterprises. Television, film and music are such bewitching media in their own right that many people are quite happy to watch and listen to what the mainstream provides. But if individuals have the opportunity to pick better, more ideally suited entertainment from a far wider selection, they will take it, according to the theory of the long tail. Some analysts reckon that entire populations might become happier and wiser once they have access to thousands of documentaries, independent films and subgenres of every kind of music, instead of being subjected to what Mr. Anderson calls the tyranny of lowest-common-denominator fare. That might be taking things a bit far. But the long tail is certainly one of the internet's better gifts to humanity. |