Formal economic forecasting is usually
based on a{{U}} (1) {{/U}}theory as to how the economy works. Some
theories are complicated, and their application requires an elaborate{{U}}
(2) {{/U}}of cause and effect. Others are relatively simple,{{U}}
(3) {{/U}}most developments in the economy to one or two basic
factors. Many economists, for example, believe that changes in the supply of
money{{U}} (4) {{/U}}the rate of growth of general business activity.
Others{{U}} (5) {{/U}}a central role to investment in new facilities--
housing, industrial plants, highways, and so forth. In the United States, where
consumers{{U}} (6) {{/U}}such a large share of economic activity, some
economy believe that consumer decisions to{{U}} (7) {{/U}}or save
provide the principal{{U}} (8) {{/U}}to the future course of the entire
economy. Obviously the theory that a forecaster applies is of{{U}} (9)
{{/U}}importance to the forecasting process; it{{U}} (10) {{/U}}his
line of investigation, the statistics he will regard as most important, and many
of the techniques he will apply. Although economic theory may
determine the general{{U}} (11) {{/U}}of a forecast, judgment also often
plays an important role. A forecaster may decide that the circumstances of the
moment are{{U}} (12) {{/U}}and that a forecast produced by the{{U}}
(13) {{/U}}statistical methods should be modified to take account of
special current circumstances. This is particularly necessary when some event
outside the Usual run of economic activity has an a{{U}} (14)
{{/U}}economic effect. For example, forecasts of 1987 economic activity in
the United States were more accurate when the analyst correctly foresaw that the
exchange value of the dollar would{{U}} (15) {{/U}}sharply during the
year that consumer spending would slacken, and that{{U}} (16)
{{/U}}rates would rise only moderately. None of these conclusions
followed{{U}} (17) {{/U}}purely economic analysis; they all required
judgment as to future decisions{{U}} (18) {{/U}}, an economist may
decide to adjust an economic forecast that was made by traditional methods to
take account of other unique{{U}} (19) {{/U}}; he may, for example,
decide that consumers will{{U}} (20) {{/U}}their spending patterns
because of special circumstances such as rising price of imports or fear of
threatened shortages.
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】考查上下文语义衔接与形容词辨析。所填词欲说明经济预测一般以什么理论为基础，后面句子 Some theories are complicated... Others are relatively simple对这一限定词给予提示，说明这种理论不是唯一的，故首先排除[C] unique“唯一的，独一无二的”；同时排除[D] unified“统一的，一元化的”：[B] peculiar指“奇特的，罕见的”，一般用来描述与众不同的东西，显然不适合于修饰这里的theory；只有[A] specific“特定的”符合题意，表示这种理论是特定的。
【正确答案】
D
【答案解析】考查上下文语义衔接与近义词辨析。空格后的cause and effect提示本句意思是耍弄清楚因果关系，也就是要追溯因果关系，因此选[D] tracing“追溯，调查”。[A] trail作名词时是“痕迹，踪迹”；[B] trap作名词时，意为“陷阱，诡计”，是个形近干扰项；[C] tracking是“跟踪”，常指通过某物留下来的一个记号或一系列记号来追踪。
【正确答案】
B
【答案解析】考查上下文语义衔接与近义词辨析。首先注意所填词用于...sth. to sth．结构，据此排除[A]与 [D]，因为claim是“声称，断言”，直接用于claim to do/be结构，credit作“归功于”时一般短语是be credited to。其余ascribe sth. to sb./sth，意思是“归因于，归咎于”；refer sb. to sth．短语是”告诉某人何处寻找信息”；这里是说其他的理论都相对简单，把经济发展主要归因于一两个因素，显然只有[B]符合文意。
【答案解析】本题考查上下文语义衔接，和3题有异曲同工之处。这一句话和上一句是并列关系，先讲了 Many economists的看法，然后讲Others的看法。因此所填词与ascribe同义复现，有“归因于”之义，同时又符合...sth.to sth．结构，因此选[C], assign sth. to sth．表示“将…归功于”。[A] appoint表示“任命，委派”，用法为appoint sb. to sth．或appoint sb. to do sth.；[B] distribute表示“分发，分给”，用法distribute sth． among/to sb.；[D] dictate是”强行规定，指令，指定”，用法为dictate sth. to sb．。
【正确答案】
A
【答案解析】考查上下文语义衔接和近义词辨析。注意所填词的宾语是a large share，推测这句话的意思是消费者在经济活动中占很大一部分，account for的意思是“占据”，由此来排除其他。comprise“构成”的正确搭配为be comprise of; make up用于主动语态，意思是“构成”，be made up of是被动形式；consist of是“由…组成”，显然不符合此处语义。
【答案解析】考查上下文语义衔接。由后面的提示，consumer spending would slacken“消费者支出减少”，可以推断原因是美元交换价值下降，排除了expand和increase，另外，deviate是“背离，偏离”，常和from连用，表示偏离某一标准，所以正确的只有decline。