Supplying energy in 1970 required the harvesting, processing and combustion of some three billion metric tons of coal, some 17 billion barrels of oil, more than a trillion cubic meters of natural gas and perhaps two billion cubic meters of fuel wood. It entailed the use of dirty coal as well as clean; undersea oil as well as terrestrial; deep gas as well as shallow; mediocre hydroelectric sites as well as good ones; and deforestation as well as sustainable fuel wood harvesting. Except for the huge pool of oil underlying the Middle East, the cheapest oil and gas are already gone. Some scientists believe there is a lot more to be found. But even if a few more giant oil fields are discovered, they will make little difference, against consumption on today’s scale. Oil and gas will have to come increasingly as imports from countries with very unstable economic conditions. There are a variety of other energy resources that are more abundant than oil and gas. Coal, solar energy, wind energy, and fission and fusion fuels are the most important ones. But they all require elaborate and expensive transformation into electricity or liquid fuels in order to meet society’s need None has very good prospects for delivering large quantities of electricity at costs comparable to those of the cheap coal-fired and hydropower plants of the 1960’s. It appears, then, that expensive energy is a permanent condition, even without allowing for its environmental costs. 71~ Except for the huge pool of oil underlying the Middle East,/the cheapest oil and gas arc alrcaci5 gone. Some scientists believe there is a lot more to be found. But even if a few more giant oil fields are discovered, they will make little difference against consumption on today’s scale. Oil and gas will have to come increasingly as imports from countries with very unstable economic conditions. There are a variety of other energy resources that are more abundant than oil and gas. Coal, solar energy, wind energy, and fission and fusion fuels are the most important ones. But they all require elaborate and expensive transformation into electricity or liquid fuels in order to meet society’s need. They may never be capable of delivering large quantities of electricity at costs comparable to those of the cheap coal-fired and hydropower plants of the 1960’s. It appears, then, that expensive energy is a permanent condition, even without allowing for its environmental costs.
【正确答案】 70年能源供应需要开采、加工和燃烧大约30亿公吨的煤和褐煤,大约170亿桶的石油,一万多亿立方米的天然气和大约20亿立方米的木柴。这意味着需要除了利用优质煤炭,还要利用劣质煤炭:除了利用陆上石油,还要利用海洋石油:除了利用浅层气,还要利用深层气:除了利用条件良好的水电站,还要利用条件一般的水电站;除了可承受的木柴采伐,还要破坏森林。 除了中东地下巨大油藏而外,最廉价油气资源已经枯竭,过去曾出现通过抬高成本来抑制能源的日益枯竭的趋势本身也已消失。即使再能发现几个大油田,对于如今规模巨大的能源消费来说,也无济于事。对于大多数国家来说,石油和天然气将越来越多地依赖于从地层深处开采,并依赖进口,而油气进口无论是资源供应的可靠性还是进口国家的支付能力都难以得到保证。 尚有其他许多能源资源要比油气资源丰富。煤炭、太阳能以及裂变聚变燃料是其中最主要的几种。但要将这些资源转化成电力或者是液体燃料以满足社会需要,都需要复杂的技术和昂贵的成本。要靠这些资源来大量生产电力,从成本上说,任何一种都无法同60年代廉价的火力发电站和水力发电站相比,因而,前景不会太好。这样看来,能源昂贵的情形将长久持续,这还不包括使用能源在环境上所付出的代价。
【答案解析】