From Washington to Frankfurt, what began months ago as a murmur of concern has morphed into a chorus as officials ask if a risk-taking binge across multiple asset markets might presage a destabilizing rout that could derail the global recovery.

Just last week, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada cited mounting threats, cognizant of the retrenchment that ensued during the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile Bitcoin’s dramatic swings after a warning about cryptocurrencies from the People’s Bank of China showcased how sensitive some markets have become.

Pessimists at global monetary institutions can find bubbles almost anywhere they look, from equities to real estate, while officials such as Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell argue any threats remain contained.

Central banks bear some responsibility for financial-market fervor after huge doses of stimulus and liquidity injections to keep economies afloat. The resulting buoyancy is at least partly a euphoria effect, applauding a snap back in growth whose scope can only be guessed at — with eventual repercussions judged to range from a benign boom to an inflationary spiral.

“Where we do see more exuberance is around growth expectations,” Max Kettner, a strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, told Bloomberg Television. “Particularly in the U.S. they’ve been raised to an enormous degree. So that is, I think, the exuberance.”

Kettner’s mention of “exuberance” followed the European Central Bank’s use of similar words on Wednesday, echoing former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s 1996 observation of “irrational exuberance” before the dotcom bubble.

The euro-zone institution observed the threat of economic spillovers from, for example, a U.S. equity-market correction. Bank of Canada officials voiced similar concerns a day later, and highlighted the housing market as expectations of continuing price increases fuel purchases.

Three weeks earlier, a Fed policy meeting veered into a debate on stability, where participants observed “elevated” risk appetite and discussed dangers posed by hedge fund activity. In a subsequent report, they warned of “vulnerabilities” and “stretched valuations,” exacerbated by high corporate debt.

Meanwhile Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently wondered aloud if speculation in stocks and Bitcoin might themselves be a “warning sign.” And a Norwegian official said that cryptocurrency volatility could threaten lenders if their exposures keep rising.

Some senior central bankers are trying to be sanguine despite flashing warning lights. After the Fed decision in April, Powell insisted that “the overall financial stability picture is mixed but on balance, it’s manageable.”

The difficulty for central banks is in managing the consequences for asset prices of their monetary policies, a challenge that has bedeviled them since the 2008 calamity. Periodically, that makes institutions such as the Fed the target of criticism.

The alternative officials face is to dare to wind down stimulus, taking on the risk of choking an economic recovery with a corresponding cost to livelihoods.

Iceland took that plunge last week, delivering the first policy tightening in Western Europe with an interest-rate increase to contain inflation and a rampant housing market.

The larger euro area, whose constituent regions vary from some of the world’s most prosperous to examples of perennial malaise, can’t be so nimble. That’s why the ECB recommends “more targeted” fiscal support for companies while avoiding stimulus withdrawal.

Similarly, the Fed cited use of macroprudential tools as important to allow monetary policy to take its course. JPMorgan economists wrote this month that they anticipate Australia’s banking regulator will “formalize” debt and loan-to-income restrictions soon.

However central banks and financial regulators respond to ebullience, they know the stakes are as high as ever, with the need to cement a rebound from a severe crisis in a world which will struggle to tolerate another one.

At least officials can take comfort in recognizing a more familiar pre-pandemic environment: The last time their worries about risk were so synchronized was in November 2019, just weeks before the coronavirus began to cripple the global economy.

【正确答案】

从华盛顿到法兰克福,几个月前开始的担忧已经演变成合唱,因为官员们询问多个资产市场的冒险狂潮是否预示着一场破坏稳定的溃败,这可能会破坏全球复苏。

就在上周,欧洲央行和加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)意识到2008年金融危机期间随之而来的紧缩政策,列举了越来越多的威胁。与此同时,在中国人民银行发出有关加密货币的警告后,比特币的剧烈波动表明一些市场已经变得多么敏感。

全球货币机构的悲观主义者几乎可以在他们看到的任何地方找到泡沫,从股票到房地产,而美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔等官员则认为,任何威胁都得到了控制。

在为维持经济运转而出台大量刺激措施和注入流动性后,各国央行对金融市场的热情负有一定责任。由此产生的浮力至少在一定程度上是一种欣快效应,为增长的迅速回升喝彩,其范围只能猜测——最终的影响被判断为从良性繁荣到通胀螺旋式上升。

“我们确实看到增长预期更繁荣的地方,”汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings Plc)策略师马克斯·凯特纳(Max Kettner)告诉彭博电视台。“特别是在美国,他们已经被提高到很大程度。所以,我认为这就是繁荣。”

凯特纳提到“繁荣”之前,欧洲央行周三也使用了类似的词语,这与前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘 (Alan Greenspan) 1996 年对互联网泡沫前“非理性繁荣”的观察相呼应。

这家欧元区机构观察到了美国股市调整等经济溢出效应的威胁。加拿大央行官员在一天后表达了类似的担忧,并强调房地产市场,因为对价格持续上涨的预期推动了购买。

三周前,美联储的一次政策会议转向了一场关于稳定性的辩论,与会者观察到了“高位”的风险偏好,并讨论了对冲基金活动带来的危险。在随后的一份报告中,他们警告称,“脆弱性”和“估值过高”,高企的公司债务加剧了这种情况。

与此同时,英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)最近大声质疑,股票和比特币的投机行为本身是否可能是一个“警告信号”。一位挪威官员表示,如果贷款人的风险敞口持续上升,加密货币的波动可能会威胁到贷款人。

一些高级央行行长试图在闪烁的警告灯下保持乐观。在美联储 4 月做出决定后,鲍威尔坚称“整体金融稳定形势喜忧参半,但总的来说,它是可控的。

央行的难点在于管理其货币政策对资产价格的影响,这是自 2008 年灾难以来一直困扰它们的挑战。这使得美联储等机构定期成为批评的目标。

官员们面临的另一种选择是敢于逐步减少刺激措施,冒着扼杀经济复苏的风险,并付出相应的生计代价。

冰岛上周采取了这一举措,通过加息遏制通货膨胀和猖獗的房地产市场,在西欧首次收紧政策。

更大的欧元区,其组成地区从世界上最繁荣的地区到常年萎靡不振的例子,不可能如此灵活。这就是为什么欧洲央行建议对企业提供“更有针对性的”财政支持,同时避免退出刺激计划。

同样,美联储指出,使用宏观审慎工具对于让货币政策顺其自然很重要。摩根大通经济学家本月写道,他们预计澳大利亚银行业监管机构将很快“正式化”债务和贷款收入限制。

无论各国央行和金融监管机构如何应对热情洋溢,他们都知道风险一如既往地高,需要巩固从严重危机中反弹,而这个世界将难以容忍另一场危机。

至少官员们可以欣慰地认识到一个更熟悉的疫情前环境:他们对风险的担忧上一次如此同步还是在 2019 年 11 月,就在冠状病毒开始削弱全球经济的几周前。

【答案解析】