The future of Chinese M&A

Where will M&A be targeted? The data available to date on larger deals mask some trends identified by those on the front-lines of the deal-making. “Diversification is a natural process, evolution,” says the head of China M&A at a Western investment bank. “The government may have given rigid marching orders in the past, but it’s now more market-oriented. There has been a concentration of deals among some successful companies but more and more companies are now looking.” This will include different sectors and private companies, and also more regional SOEs, such as Yanzhou Coal, which recently bought Australia’s Felix Resources.

It is a safe bet that Chinese firms will continue to seek a secure supply of mining and natural-resource assets. These are the fuels of the mighty Chinese industrial juggernaut, which has a ways to go before shifting into top gear. But the nature of investment in resources is likely to change. As we have already seen, CIC, China’s sovereign wealth fund, has become more active in accessing resource deals. Companies directly involved in the resources sector are likely to chase smaller equity stakes, although this should generate higher volumes overall, some observers say. In terms of M&A, Chinese interest will remain keen in markets where resources have been developed and are easily accessible, such as Australia and Canada. But China has also begun to cut deals with resource-rich African nations under which it will fund the building of infrastructure in exchange for resources such as oil and copper.

Clean energy is also billed as a strong candidate for deals. China is now the world’s leading producer of greenhouse emissions and is in desperate need of less-polluting power sources. But no less important is the fact that China regards clean energy as one of the most promising new sectors in which no country has a huge advantage over the others. China thus feels it can leverage massive potential demand in its domestic market to become a global industry leader.

Technology of any kind will be a prime target of Chinese M&A. Sectors of particular note include car components, IT and micro-electronics. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are now buying those OEMs to control the whole supply chain.