Humans are forever forgetting that they can't control nature. Exactly 20
years ago, a Time magazine cover story announced that "scientists are on the
verge of being able to predict the time, place and even the size of
earthquakes." The people of quake-ravaged (被地震破坏的) Kobe learned last week how
wrong that assertion was. None of the methods conceived two
decades ago has yet to discover a uniform wanting signal that preceded all
quakes, let alone any sign that would tell whether the coming temblor (地震) is
mild or a killer. Earthquake formation can be triggered by many factors, says
Hiroo Kanamori, a seismologist (地震学家) at the California Institute of Technology.
So, finding one all-purpose warning sign is impossible. One reason: Quakes tart
deep in the earth, so scientists can't study them directly. If a quake precursor
were found, it would still be impossible to ward humans in advance of all
dangerous quakes. Places like Japan and California are riddle with hundreds. if
not thousands, of minor faults. Prediction would be less
important if scientists could easily build structures to withstand tremors.
While seismic engineering has improved dramatically in the past 10 to 15 years,
every new quake reveals unexpected weakness in "quake-resistant" structures,
says Terry Tullis, a geophysicist at Brown University. In Kobe, for example, a
highway that opened only last year was damaged. In the Northridge earthquake, on
the other hand, well-built structures generally did not collapse.
A recent report in Science adds yet more anxiety about life on the faulty
lines. Researchers Fan computer simulations to see how quake resistant buildings
would fall in a moderate size temblor, taking into account that much of a
quake's energy travels in a large "pulse" of focused shaking. The results: both
steel--frame buildings and buildings that sit on insulating rubber pads suffered
severe damage. More research will help experts design stronger
structures and possibly find quake pre cursors. But it is still a certainty that
the next earthquake will prove once again that every fault cannot be monitored
and every highway cannot be completely quake-proofed.
单选题
From the first paragraph, it can be safely inferred that ______.
A. Scientists can never be able to predict the coming of earthquakes
B. The existing power on predicting earthquakes is somewhat
exaggerated
C. Quite a lot of scientific assertions are groundless
D. Earthquake predictions are beyond the reach of scientists