Chinese stocks are still a long way off their October 2007 record highs, but if sentiment on the streets of Beijing or Chongqing is anything to go by, the one stock at a new all-time high is that of the Chinese government. The country’s middle class now has incredible faith in its government's ability to pull off any plan it sets out to achieve.
Many people were obviously shaken by last fall's global financial crisis, and at the beginning of this year, there was widespread anxiety about employment and income prospects. However, the Chinese have been so impressed by their government's staggeringly large policy response and the traction those steps have gained in reviving investment that the dramatic events of 2008 now seem like a blip in the country's long march toward more prosperity.
It is popular in the capital city to contrast the Chinese economy's resilience with the bleaker outlook in Western countries. Cabdrivers, if only half in jest, talk about offering discounts to American and British passengers, while shopkeepers in the old town joke about how sorry they feel for foreign tourists not showing up at their door because the “poor” folks must be out of money.
The animal spirits of local Chinese consumers, on the other hand, are alive and kicking. Nowhere is this more evident than in the property market, where apartment prices in top-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are back up to their 2007 highs. Even Hong Kong's latest property boom, which has seen both transaction volume and prices exceed the 2007 peak levels, is attributed to investors from mainland China. In Macau, gaming revenue touched new record highs in July, driven largely by Chinese money.
Not surprisingly, then, China is one of the first countries in the world where authorities are beginning to take action to rein in growth. Chinese policymakers are concerned that a significant chunk of the more than $1 trillion in new loans extended by the banking sector in the first half of 2009 (a figure that took the total amount of outstanding bank loans to a whopping 150 percent of GDP) has not made its way into the real economy. Anywhere between 10 and 20 percent of the lending is estimated to have gone into the local stock markets. As a result, banking regulators are now cooling lending,and the central bank is withdrawing some of the excess liquidity from the system.
很明显, 很多人对于去年秋天的全球金融危机感到震惊, 所以今年以来都普遍担忧就业和收入前景。 中国政府宏观政策的反响, 以及这些举措对于重振投资的牵引, 都令中国人民印象深刻。 所以在他们看来, 2008年的戏剧性事件像是国家迈向繁荣长征途中的暂时变故。
拿中国经济复苏能力与西方国家的黯然前景进行对比在首都城市很是流行。出租车司机半开玩笑地在商量给来自英美的乘客车费打折; 而老城区的店主开玩笑说现在外国游客都不敢出门了, 因为这些可怜的人们把钱都花光了。
另一方面, 中国本土消费者的活力仍然不减。 这一点在房地产市场最为突出,北京、 上海等一线城市的住宅价格已经回到了2007年的高点。 甚至香港最新的房地产业成交量和房价都超过2007年的高峰水平, 这一房地产热也要归功于大陆的投资者们。 澳门七月 份博彩收入创新高主要受中国资金推动。
之后就不足为奇了。 中国是世界上最早采取行动控制经济增长的国家之一。银行业新增贷款2009年上半年超过1万亿美元(未偿还的银行贷款总额高达国内生产总值的1.5倍) , 中国政策制定者担心其中一大部分还未投入到实体经济中。 据估计,10%-20%的贷款流入当地股市。 因此, 银行监管机构正在降温放贷, 中央银行正在从该体系中撤出部分多余的流动资产。