单选题 There is an investment which contains an expected return and standard deviation of 10% and 5% respectively. Assume that it is normally distributed, calculate the chance of losing money.
【正确答案】 C
【答案解析】Using the standard normal probability distribution, Z=(observation-mean)/standard deviation =(0-10)/5=-2. 00, the chance of getting zero or less return (losing money) is 1-0.9772 =0.0228% or 2.28%. An alternative explanation: The expected return is 10 percent. To lose money means, the return must fall below zero. Zero is about two standard deviations to the left of the mean. Fifty percent of the time, a return will be below the mean and 2.5 percent of the observations are below two standard deviations down. About 97.5 percent of the time, the return will be above zero. Thus, only about a 2.5 percent chance exists of having a value below zero.