单选题 Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack. America's capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment -- the rate below which inflation has taken oft in the past.
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

单选题 According to the text, making monetary policy changes

A. is comparable to driving a car.
B. is similar to carrying out scientific work.
C. will not influence the economy immediately.
D. will have an immediate impact on the inflation rate.

【正确答案】 C

【答案解析】该题考查考生是否理解了第一段的具体内容。没有认真阅读的考生很可能选A，因为第一句话和最后一句都提到了车。但是，仔细阅读后，我们会发现该段的内容和结构是：先指出人们经常用驾驶的语言来描述货币政策，使之听上去像一门严谨的科学。其实不然。利率和通货膨胀的关系是不确定的。若要比喻，那么货币政策的实施也是像开着一辆挡风屏被遮住的车。这说明不确定因素很多。A项不对。作者认为以往用驾驶来形容货币政策并不准确，因为实际中的不肯定因素很多。B项也不对。C项是正确的，依据是原文中的这句话：“And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy”，说的是：政策的改变是需要很长的时间才能显示出效果的。D项与C项相反，因而是错误的。

单选题 From the text we learn that

A. there is a clear relationship between inflation and interest rates.
B. the economy always follows particular trends.
C. the current economic problems are entirely predictable.
D. the present economic situation is better than expected.

【正确答案】 D

【答案解析】该题考查的也是考生对具体内容的理解。A项不对，因为在第段就说了：“The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain.”B项在文中找不到根据。第三段第一句说：“It is also less than most forecasters had predicted.”。否定了C项的说法。经济风云变幻，是难以预测的。D项是正确的，文中的根据是：“Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures…”．说明现状要比预想中的好。

单选题 The text suggests that

A. the previous economic models are still applicable.
B. an extremely tow jobless rate will lead to inflation.
C. a high unemployment rate will result from inflation.
D. interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy.

【正确答案】 B

【答案解析】该题考查的也是对文章具体内容的理解。A项是错误的，因为文中的最后一句说：“…powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models…”，旧模式将被颠覆。B项是正确的，根据是第四段的最后一句：“…its jobless rate has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past．”，说明旦失业率低于自然失业率就会产生通货膨胀。C项正好把因果关系弄错了，因此是错误的。D项也是错误的。

单选题 By saying "This is no flash in the pan" (Line 6，Paragraph 3), the author implies that

A. the low inflation rate will continue.
B. the inflation rate will rise again.
C. inflation will disappear entirely.
D. there is no inflation at present.

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】该题考查考生根据上下文推测词义的能力。“flash in the pan”是英语中常见的种表达方法，表示“昙花一现”。考生若不知这个表达方法，也可以从后半句推断出其含义：“over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected…”，通货膨胀直都比预想的低。所以B、C、D明显是不对的。

单选题 How does the author feel about the present situation?

A. Tolerant.
B. Indifferent.
C. Disappointed.
D. Surprised.

【正确答案】 D

【答案解析】该题考查的是考生对作者的态度的推断能力。文中多处都反映了作者的态度，例如：“Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures…”，而且作者还举出许多数据来证明低通货膨胀率。从这些例子和作者的用词，我们可推断出作者对于这一现状也是很吃惊的。A、B、C项分别表示：“容忍的”，“漠不关心的”，和“失望的”，显然都是不对的。