单选题
Have you ever wondered what our future is like? Practically all people (1) a desire to predict their future (2) . Most people seem inclined to (3) this task using causal reasoning. First we (4) recognize that future circumstances are (5) caused or conditioned by present ones. We learn that getting an education will (6) how much money we earn later and that swimming beyond the reef may bring an unhappy (7) with a shark. Second, people also learn that such (8) of cause and effect are probabilistic (可能的) in nature. That is, the effects occur more often when the causes occur than when the causes are (9) but not always. Thus, students learn that studying hard (10) good grades in most instances, but not every time. Science makes these concepts of causality and probability more (11) and provides techniques for dealing (12) then more accurately than does causal human inquiry. In looking at ordinary human inquiry, we need to (13) between prediction and understanding. Often, even if we don't understand why, we are willing to act (14) the basis of a demonstrated predictive ability. Whatever the primitive drives (15) motivate human beings, satisfying them depends heavily on the ability to (16) future circumstances. The attempt to predict is often played in a (17) of knowledge and understanding. If you can understand why certain regular patterns (18) , you can predict better than if you simply observe those patterns. Thus, human inquiry aims (19) answering both "what" and "why" question, and we pursue these (20) by observing and figuring out.