A Mess on the Ladder of Success

【A1】Throughout American history, there has almost always been at least one central economic narrative that gave the ambitions or unsatisfied reason to pack up and seek their fortune elsewhere. For the first 300 or so years of European settlement the story was about moving outwards: getting immigrants to the continent and then to the frontier to clear the prairies, drain the wetlands and build new cities.

By the end of the 19th century, as the frontier vanished, the US had a mild panic attack. 【A2】What would this energetic, enterprising country be without new lands to conquer? Some people, such as Teddy Roosevelt decided to keen on conquering (Cuba, the Philippines,etc.), but eventually in industrialization. The US found a new narrative of economics mobility at home. From the 1890s to the 1960s, people moved from farm to city, first in the North and then in the South. In fact, by the 1950s, there was enough prosperity and white-collar work that many began to move to the suburbs. As the population aged, there was also a shift from the cold Rust Belt to the comforts of the Sun Belt. We think of this as an old person's migration, but it created many jobs for the young in construction and health care, not to mention tourism, retail and restaurants.

For the last 20 years—from the end of the cold war through two burst bubbles in a single decade—the US has been casting about for its next economic narrative. And now it is experiencing another period of panic, which is bad news for much of the workforce but particularly for its youngest members.

The US has always been a remarkable mobile country, but new data from the Census Bureau indicate that mobility has reached its lowest level in recorded history. Sure, some people are stuck in homes valued at less than their mortgages, but many young people—who don't own homes and don't yet have families—are staying put, too. This suggests, among other things, that people aren't packing up for new economic opportunities the way they used to. Rather than dividing the country into the 1 percent versus everyone else, the split in our economy is really between two other classes: the mobile and immobile.

Part of the problem is that country's largest industries are in decline. In the past, it was perfectly clear where young people should go for work (Chicago in the 1870s, Detroit in the 1910s, Houston in the 1970s) and, more or less, what they'd be doing when they got there (killing cattle, building ears, selling oil). 【A3】And these industries were large enough to offer jobs to each class of worker, from unskilled laborer to manager or engineer. Today, the few bright spots in our economy are relatively small (though some promise future growth) and decentralized. There are great jobs in Silicon Valley, in the biotech research capitals of Boston and Raleigh-Durham and in advanced manufacturing plants along the southern 1-85 corridor. These companies recruit all over the country and the globe for workers with specific abilities. 【A4】You don't need to be the next Mark Zuckerberg founder of Facebook to get a job in one of the micro hubs, by the way. But you will almost certainly need at least a B.A. in computer science or a year or two at a technical school. This newer, select job market is national and it offers members of the mobile class competitive salaries and higher bargaining power.

Many members of the immobile class, on the other hand, live in the America of the gloomy headlines. If you have no specialized skills, there's little reason to uproot to another state and be the last in line for a low-paying job at a new auto plant or a green-energy startup. The surprise in the census data, however, is that the immobile workforce is not limited to unskilled workers. In fact, many have a college degree.

Until now, a B.A. in any subject was a near-guarantee of at least middle-class wages. But today, a quarter of college graduates make less than the typical works without a bachelor's degree. David Autor, a prominent labor economist at M.I.T., recently told me that a college degree alone is no longer a guarantor of a good job. 【A5】While graduates from top universities are still likely to get a good job no matter what their major is, he said, graduates from less-famous schools are going to be judged on what they know. To compete for jobs on a national level they should be armed with the skills that emerging industries need whether technical or not.

【A1】

【A2】

【A3】

【A4】

【A5】