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The hazards of keeping up with the Joneses. The relentlessness with which central banks are increasing interest rates reflects alarm at rising prices —and an aversion to being portrayed as insufficiently courageous at a time of economic peril. With so much hiking, officials should fret about the broader impact of the course they are on. The recession they are courting may be no ordinary downturn.
We are experiencing one of the most synchronized bouts of monetary and fiscal tightening in the past five decades, according to the World Bank. While the Federal Reserve may steal the show Wednesday with a third consecutive hike of 75 basis points, rates will almost certainly march higher in coming days in places as diverse as the UK, Indonesia, the Philippines and Norway. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank pulled off its first 75 basis-point jump, and left the door open for more. Sweden's Riksbank shocked markets Tuesday by lifting its main rate by a full percentage point.
It’s the countries that haven’t ratcheted up borrowing costs that stand out. The era of the global central bank may be with us in all but name, as much as policy makers themselves would bristle at the suggestion. About 90 central banks have raised rates this year, and half of them have increased by at least three-quarters of a percentage point in a single bound, based on Bloomberg News calculations. This week’s hikes alone may exceed 500 basis points.
Even the outliers are less than comfortable. The Bank of Japan, which has refused to budge, faces hard questions about why it clings to an ultra-easy stance when inflation has well and truly breached its 2% target. Inflation climbed to the highest in more than three decades last month.
It’s a brave central banker who worries too loudly about other countries when headlines scream about inflation at home and politicians pile on. Most monetary agencies have at least some autonomy, but they still operate in a political environment. Policy makers face hostile questions in parliamentary hearings and some legislators go so far as to call for resignations. That’s an understandable, if disappointing, reaction when jumps in CPI lead the evening news. If officials harbor concerns about the subpar performance of the global economy — and there are sound reasons to be anxious — they tend to be publicly muted about it.
One person who has flagged the need to think globally is Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard. While not for a minute challenging the desirability of reining in demand and prices, she did keep an eye on the potential consequences of the global policy lockstep. “The rapidity of the tightening cycle and its global nature, as well as the uncertainty around the pace at which the effects of tighter financial conditions are working their way through aggregate demand, create risks associated with over-tightening,” Brainard said in a speech. A bleak global outlook may also keep the Fed from moving by a full percentage point today, according to Bloomberg Economics.
There’s danger today that, acting out of domestic concerns, the response to higher inflation will ricochet far beyond national boundaries. Because these policies are highly synchronous across countries, they could be mutually compounding in their effects — tightening financial conditions and steepening the global growth slowdown more than envisioned.
A rallying cry for fans of central banks, whenever politicians make noises about rates, is to protect autonomy at almost any cost. But what about central banks being independent of each other, especially the Fed? The impact of the whole may be more consequential — and keenly felt — than the sum of the parts.
跟风攀比的危害。各国央行纷纷大幅上调利率,引发了关于物价上涨的担忧,同时在经济形势如此险恶的时候,决策者也不愿显得缺乏勇气,不敢作为。利率如此上涨的情况下,政府官员应该担忧的是当前形势不断发展造成的大范围后果,他们所期望发生的衰退可能不仅仅是普通的经济下行。
世界银行表示,我们现在正面临着50年来紧缩性货币和财政政策最为集中的时期。美联储周三第三次将利率上调75个基点,已经抢足了风头,但英国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和挪威等国肯定还会加息。本月早些时候,欧洲央行首次将利率大幅上调75个基点,且不排除继续加息的可能。瑞典央行将利率上调了整整1个百分点,也让市场深受震动。
反倒是没有随之增加贷款利率的国家格外显眼。可能全球央行的时代已经来临了,只是还缺少一个名头而已,可能是因为决策者们会因为这个建议而恼怒不已。据彭博社报道,今年已有约90家央行上调利率,其中一半都曾一举加息超过0.75个百分点,仅本周的加息可能就超过500个基点。
就连情况相对缓和的外围国家也有些坐立不安,日本央行此前一直拒绝随之加息,但现在日本通胀早已超过其2%的目标,上月更是达到了30多年以来的最高水平,日本央行越发难以回答相关质询,即为什么在当前局势下还要执着于特别宽松的经济政策。
当头版新闻不断渲染国内通胀情况,政客们也纷纷跟进的情况下,最有勇气的央行管理人员才会公开对其他国家的情况表达担忧。大部分货币管理机构都起码有一定的自主权,但他们的运行也无法摆脱所处的政治环境。决策者在议会听证会当中面临着尖锐的问题,一些立法者甚至到了要求他们辞职的地步。当消费者价格指数频频占据晚间新闻的情况下,这种反应固然可以理解,但也不免有些让人失望。即使有些政府官员忧心于全球经济的疲软走势,而这种忧虑也绝非杞人忧天,他们往往也不会表达出来,而是保持沉默。
提出需要从全球化视角看问题的人,是美联储副主席布雷纳德。尽管她并没有对平抑需求的物价的重要性发表丝毫反对,布雷纳德也确实在关注各国相继出台加息政策的潜在影响。她在一次演讲中表示:“经济紧缩周期的发展之快,其影响之全球化,以及紧缩性经济形势对于总需求影响的速度和节奏,这些因素可能导致过度紧缩的风险”。彭博社认为,可能正是全球经济前景的低迷,让美联储现在并没有再把利率大幅调整一整个百分点。
当前存在这样一种风险,各国为了应对国内通胀问题,出于内部的忧虑所采取的措施,其影响可能远超国界。因为这些国家采取的经济政策在时间上高度重叠,很可能互相叠加放大,加剧经济形势的紧缩,造成全球经济增长的进一步放缓,比人民预想的更加严重。
每当政治家们谈起利率,央行支持者们都会有志一同地高呼,要几乎不计代价地保护央行自主性。但如果要央行们彼此之前保持独立呢,尤其是美联储。事物总体的影响可能会远超各个组成部分的简单相加,人们也会切实感受到这一点。