【正确答案】[问题一]
1.根据题意画出决策树,如图6-5所示。

2.计算各结点的期望收益值。
结点⑥:268×(P/A,12%,4)×0.7+134(P/A,12%,4)×0.3+105×(P/F,12%,4)
=758.62(万元)
结点⑦:335×(P/A,12%,4)×0.3+100.5×(P/A,12%,4)×0.7+105×(P/F,12%,4)
=585.65(万元)
结点⑧:429.7+120.6×(P/A,12%,4)+35×(P/F,12%,4)=818.24(万元)
结点⑨:644.55(万元)
结点⑩:335×(P/A,12%,5)×0.7+100.5×(P/A,12%,5)×0.3+222.5×(P/F,12%,5)-750
=330.26(万元)
结点(11)=234.5×(P/A,12%,9)×0.2+167.5(P/A,12%,5)×0.3+ 147.4×(P/A,12%,5)×0.5+35×(P/F,12%,5)=635.74(万元)
结点(12):134×(P/A,12%,5)+35(P/F,12%,5)=502.90(万元)
结点

:是一决策点,对该结点的四个方案进行比较,结点⑧的期望收益值最大,应选择该方案,剪去其他方案分枝。
结点
