2023年上半年,我国外汇收支状况主要呈现以下特点:
第一,跨境资金流动保持活跃,呈现净流入格局。2023年上半年,银行代客涉外收入和支出合计超过6万亿美元,处于历史同期次高水平。从差额看,涉外收支保持一定规模顺差。其中,2023年1月份受春节前企业集中收汇等因素影响,涉外收付款顺差处于季节性高位;2-5月份涉外收入与支出金额基本相当;6月份顺差规模回升至120亿美元。分季度看,也是连续两个季度顺差。
第二,银行结售汇小幅顺差,境内外汇市场供求基本平衡。上半年,银行结售汇总体表现为顺差,综合考虑其他供求因素后,外汇市场供求保持基本平衡。分季度看,一季度银行结售汇呈现小幅逆差;二季度由逆差转为顺差,尤其是6月份,尽管外部环境更加复杂,但银行结售汇顺差82亿美元,大幅高于前几个月的月均规模。
第三,售汇率略有上升,企业外币融资延续平稳态势。2023年上半年,衡量购汇意愿的售汇率,也就是客户从银行买汇与客户涉外外汇支出之比为69.2%,较2022年同期上升3个百分点。从外汇融资看,截至2023年6月末,我国企业等市场主体的境内外汇贷款余额2749亿美元,较2022年末增加37亿美元。进口海外代付、远期信用证等跨境贸易外币融资余额674亿美元,较2022年末下降94亿美元。
第四,结汇率稳中有升,境内外汇存款余额有所下降。2023年上半年,衡量结汇意愿的结汇率,也就是客户向银行卖出外汇与客户涉外外汇收入之比为67.5%,较2022年同期上升0.5个百分点。截至2023年6月末,企业等市场主体的境内外汇存款余额6061亿美元,较2022年末下降280亿美元,显示市场主体持汇意愿总体稳定。
第五,外汇储备规模基本稳定。截至2023年6月末,我国外汇储备规模为31930亿美元,较2022年末增加653亿美元,主要受汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用影响。
In the first half of 2023, China's foreign exchange receipts and payments have demonstrated the following characteristics:
First, cross-border capital flows remained stable with net inflow momentum. In the first half of 2023, the total amount of cross-border receipts and payments by non-banking sectors exceeded $6 trillion, which was the second highest level in history during the same period. In terms of the balance, foreign-related receipts and payments have seen a surplus. Specifically, the surplus of foreign-related receipts and payments reached a seasonal high in January 2023. This can be attributed to factors such as enterprises rushing to collect foreign exchange before Spring Festival. During the February-May period, the amount of foreign-related receipts and payments remained basically the same. The size of surplus rebounded to $12 billion in June. Based on quarterly data, we have also seen a surplus for two consecutive quarters.
Second, foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks recorded a small surplus, and the supply and demand of the overseas foreign exchange market remained basically balanced. In the first half of the year, the overall foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks recorded a surplus, and the supply and demand of foreign exchange sustained a basic balance upon consideration of other factors in this regard. According to quarterly data, foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks recorded a small deficit in the first quarter and this turned into a surplus in the second quarter. Particularly in June, despite the increasingly complex external environment, foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks recorded a surplus of $8.2 billion, which was significantly higher than the monthly average in the previous months.
Third, the foreign exchange sales rate increased, and the foreign exchange financing by enterprises remained stable. In the first half of 2023, the sales rate, a measure of customers' willingness to buy foreign exchange, which is the ratio of foreign exchange purchased by customers from banks to foreign-related foreign exchange payments made by customers, stood at 69.2%, up 3 percentage points over the same period in 2022. In terms of foreign exchange financing, as of the end of June 2023, the outstanding domestic foreign exchange loans of market participants, such as Chinese enterprises, amounted to $274.9 billion, an increase of $3.7 billion from the end of 2022. The balance of foreign currency financing under international trade, such as import refinancing and forward letter of credit, stood at $67.4 billion, declining $9.4 billion from the end of 2022.
Fourth, the foreign exchange settlement ratio steadily increased, and the balance of enterprises' foreign exchange deposits declined. In the first half of 2023, the foreign exchange settlement ratio, a measure of customers' willingness to settle foreign exchange, which is the ratio of foreign exchange sold by customers to banks to customers' foreign-related foreign exchange receipts, reached 67.5%, up by 0.5 percentage point over the same period in 2022. As of the end of June 2023, domestic foreign exchange deposits held by Chinese enterprises and other market participants totaled $606.1 billion, declining $28 billion from the end of 2022. This suggests that the general willingness among market entities to hold foreign exchange remains stable.
Fifth, the volume of China's foreign exchange reserves remained basically stable. By the end of June 2023, China's foreign exchange reserves totaled $3.1930 trillion yuan, $65.3 billion more than the end of 2022, mainly due to the combined effects of currency translation, asset price changes and other factors.