前段时间,中国领导人表示将放宽计划生育政策,允许有一方为独生子女的夫妇生二胎。目前,除非夫妻双方都是独生子女,否则仍只能要一个孩子;如果农村家庭的第一个孩子是女孩的话,可以生第二胎。政策变化的原因在于中国正寻求解决人口迅速老龄化背后所隐现的劳工短缺问题。这一人口结构的变化也将出人意料地影响到中国经济的某一块——蓬勃发展的房地产市场。
房价长期上涨,已超出了很多中国人的承受范围。一些研究发现,中国房价的飙升与日益扩大的男女比例失衡有关。因为男性比女性多很多(15-30岁适婚年龄段中的男女比例为1.15:1),中国的婚恋竞争已变得异常激烈。
无Even those who know little about China have heard of its policy limiting most couples to one child. The 1980 law in the world’ s most populous country was originally intended to tame fears that a surging population would suck up resources and hurt growth. Birthrates plunged to 1. 64 children per woman in 2011 from 4. 77 in the 1970s, but the policy has led to countless troublesome consequences over the years, including forced sterilizations and abortions and a shortage of women in a country that overwhelmingly prefers boys over girls.
A few days ago, leaders pledged to relax the one-child policy, allowing couples to have two children if one parent is an only child. Currently, couples are restricted to one child unless both parents are only children and rural families are allowed to do so if their first child is a girl. The policy change comes as China seeks to address a looming shortage of workers in the face of a rapidly aging population. Such demographic changes could also ripple across an unexpected part of China’ s economy—its booming housing market.
Property prices have spiked dramatically, making it unaffordable for many Chinese to buy. And studies have found that the rapid rise of China’ s home prices is linked to its widening gender imbalance. Because there are many more men than women ( a ratio of 1. 15 men of marriage age of 15 to 30 years old for every woman) , China’ s dating scene has become ultra-competitive.