| Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan
Greenspan laid forth the intellectual basis for the likely continued aggressive
easing in monetary policy in the weeks ahead in his semi-annual monetary policy
report to Congress. The broader point in his prepared testimony is that the improved information and production controls evident in the new economy induce companies to respond more quickly and in tandem to changes in their business. Mistakes are still made as is evidenced by the unwanted buildup of inventories at the end of last year, but any mistakes are more aggressively addressed than in the past, as is evidenced by manufacturers' recent slashing of production. Moreover, the increasingly dramatic shifts in economic activity are particularly hard on confidence. Consumers and businesses literally freeze up due to the heightened uncertainty, and run from any perceived risks and curtail their spending and investment. If confidence deflates by enough, then a recession will ensue. Confidence has also been under extraordinary pressure in recent months due to surging energy prices and weaker stock prices. Higher energy bills have acted much like a tax increase, save the checks are largely being written to foreign energy producers. The lower stock prices are having a magnified impact due to the dramatic increase in stock wealth since the mid-1990s. The conduct of monetary policy must adjust to all of this, and thus respond more quickly and aggressively than in the past in an effort to shore up confidence. This explains the dramatic and unprecedented action (at least by a Greenspan-led Federal Reserve) to cut the federal funds rate target by 100 basis points in January: This also suggests that substantially more easing is on the way in the weeks ahead. Just when and by how much will depend on whether confidence continues to fall. The chairman made a point to note that policymakers have significant latitude to ease policy aggressively since inflation remains low and tame. Despite surging energy prices, inflation and inflation expectations remain contained. The Federal Reserve's economic projections for this year provided as part of the testimony support this non-recessionary view. Real GDP is expected to grow by between 2% and 2. 5% between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the fourth quarter of this year. Since this is below the economy's potential growth, the jobless rate will rise to approximately 4. 5% by year's end. Inflation will moderate somewhat in response. Recession risks are rising and as high as they have been since the last downturn almost a decade ago. The key buffer between a soft economy and a recessionary one is confidence, and today's testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman clearly indicates that policymakers will be as aggressive as they need to be to ensure that confidence erodes no further. With just a bit of luck they will succeed. |