单选题 Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as"steering the economy to a soft landing"or"a touch on the brakes"．makes it sound like a precise science．Nothing could be further from the truth．The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain．And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy．Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel．
Given all these disadvantages．central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late． Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3%last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years．before rising slightly to 2.5%this July．This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s．
It is also less than most forecasters had predicated．In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5%in 1995．In 1995, in fact, it fell to 2.6%in August, and expected to average only about 3%for the year as a whole．In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year．This is no flash in the pan；over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America．
Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack．America's capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year,and its jobless rate(5.6%in August)has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past．
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately,a little defective．Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up—ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation．

单选题 From the passage we learn that______．
A．there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
B．economy will always follow certain models
C．the economic situation is better than expected
D．economists had foreseen the present economic situation

【正确答案】 C

【答案解析】[解析] 从文章第1段的内容可知，过去被用来描述金融政策的许多术语使得金融政策听起来像是一门严谨的科学，实际情况可能远非如此，利率与通货膨胀之间的联系并不稳定，政策变动对经济产生影响之前，有一段时间长且易变的滞后期。因此，出现了这样的类比——将执行金融政策比作驾驶一辆挡风玻璃已经发黑、后视镜已经破裂并且方向盘已经失灵的汽车。从文章第2段的内容可知，尽管有这些不利条件，但是最近中央银行的银行家似乎有不少值得夸耀的东西：七大工业国家的平均通货膨胀率下降了，接近30年来的最低水平，比许多国家 20世纪70年代和80年代早期经历过的两位数的通货膨胀率要低很多。从文章第3段的内容可知，这一数字也比大多数预测人员预测的要低：在英国和日本，通货膨胀率比去年年底预测的要低零点五个百分点；英国和美国的通货膨胀率一直比预测的低。从文章第4段的内容可知，英、美两国的通货膨胀率带来的是有利结果，两国的经济，尤其是美国的经济，几乎没有出现生产萧条的现象。文章在最后一段总结出：为什么通货膨胀如此和缓呢?一些经济学家认为，旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所引起的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式。据此可知，英、美两国目前的经济形势比预计的状况要好。C项的“经济形势比预期的好”与文章的意思相符；A项“通货膨胀和利率有明确的关系”与文章第1段第3句话的意思不符；B项不正确，依据是文章最后一段的最后一句话“旧的经济模式以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史联系为基础，但是世界经济结构所引起的巨大变化已经打破了这种模式”；D项明显与文章第3、4段第1句话的意思不符。综上所述，只有C项为正确答案。

单选题 According to the passage，which of the following is true?
A．Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car．
B．An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation．
C．A high unemployment rate will result from inflation．
D．Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy．

【正确答案】 B

【答案解析】[解析] 本题中，A项不正确，文章第1段最后一句话只是将执行金融政策比作驾驶汽车，并不是说制定金融政策就像开车；C项明显不符合文章的意思；D项不正确，从文章第1段的第3、4句话可知，利率与通货膨胀之间的联系并不稳定，政策变动对经济产生影响之前，有一段时间长且易变的滞后期；从文章第4段的最后一句话可知，今年早些时候，美国的生产力利用率达到历史新高，它的失业率已经低于大多数正常失业率的预计——过去，如果低于这个失业率，通货膨胀率就已经上升。据此可知，如果失业率低，就会导致通货膨胀。 B项的“极低的失业率将引发通货膨胀”，这与文中“the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past(过去，如果失业率低于此，通货膨胀率就会上升)”的意思相符，因此B项为正确答案。

单选题 The sentence“This is no flash in the pan”(Line 5，Paragraph 3)means that______．
A．the lOW inflation rate will last for some time
B．the inflation rate will soon rise
C．the inflation will disappear quickly
D．there is no inflation at present

【正确答案】 A

【答案解析】[解析] 本题中，B项“通货膨胀率不久将上升”和C项“通货膨胀将很快消失”之意明显与文章的意思不符。D项不正确，文中只是说“通货膨胀率低”，并没有说没有通货膨胀。从文章第3段的内容可知，通货膨胀率也比大多数预测人员预测的要低；由经济学家组成的专门研究小组说，美国1995年的通货膨胀率将平均达到3.5%，而实际上，通货膨胀率8月份就降到了2.6%，并且全年的通货膨胀率有望达到大约3%的平均水平；在英国和日本，通货膨胀率比去年年底预测的要低0.5%。这不是昙花一现。过去几年，英国和美国的通货膨胀率一直比预测的低。据此可知，英、美两国的通货膨胀率低并不是偶然现象，而是一直比预测的比率低，并且可能持续一段时间。A项的“低通货膨胀率将持续一段时间”与文章的意思相符，因此A项为正确答案。

单选题 The passage shows that the author is______the present situation．
A．critical of B．puzzled by C．disappointed at D．amazed at

【正确答案】 D

【答案解析】[解析] 本题中，A项“持批评态度”和C项“感到失望”之意明显与文章的意思不符。 B项不正确，文中是说对良好的通货膨胀率感到惊异，并不是说感到困惑。从文章第2段的内容可知，通货膨胀率比许多国家20世纪70年代和80年代早期经历过的两位数的通货膨胀率要低很多：从文章第4段的内容可知，英、美两国良好的通货膨胀率尤其令经济学家感到惊异，两国的经济，尤其是美国的经济，几乎没有停滞；从文章最后一段的内容可知，为什么通货膨胀如此和缓呢?不幸的是，即使最令人振奋的解释也不怎么完美。据此可知，作者认为当前的经济形势出人意料。D项的“感到惊讶”与文中“Economists have been particularly surprised bv favorable inflation figures(尤其令经济学家感到惊异的是有利的通货膨胀率)”的意思相符，因此D项为正确答案。