单选题
The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was just as gloomy as anticipated. Unemployment in January jumped to a 16-year high of 7.6 percent, as 598,000 jobs were slashed from U.S. payrolls in the worst single-month decline since December, 1974. With 1.8 million jobs lost in the last three months, there is urgent desire to boost the economy as quickly as possible. But Washington would do well to take a deep breath before reacting to the grim numbers. Collectively, we rely on the unemployment figures and other statistics to frame our sense of reality. They are a vital part of an array of data that we use to assess if we're doing well or doing badly, and that in turn shapes government policies and corporate budgets and personal spending decisions. The problem is that the statistics aren't an objective measure of reality; they are simply a best approximation. Directionally, they capture the trends, but the idea that we know precisely how many are unemployed is a myth. That makes finding a solution all the more difficult. First, there is the way the data is assembled. The official unemployment rate is the product of a telephone survey of about 60,000 homes. There is another survey, sometimes referred to as the 'payroll survey,' that assesses 400,000 businesses based on their reported payrolls. Both surveys have problems. The payroll survey can easily, double-count someone: if you are one person with two jobs, you show up as two workers. The payroll survey also doesn't capture the number of self-employed, and so says little about how many people are generating an independent income. The household survey has a larger problem. When asked straightforwardly, people tend to lie or shade the truth when the subject is sex, money or employment. If you get a call and are asked if you're employed, and you say yes, you're employed. If you say no, however, it may surprise you to learn that you are only unemployed if you've been actively looking for work in the past four weeks; otherwise, you are 'marginally attached to the labor force' and not actually unemployed. The urge to quantify is embedded in our society. But the idea that statisticians can then capture an objective reality isn't just impossible. It also leads to serious misjudgments. Democrats and Republicans can and will take sides on a number of issues, but a more crucial concern is that both are basing major policy decisions on guesstimates rather than looking at the vast wealth of raw data with a critical eye and an open mind.
单选题
What do we learn from the first paragraph? ______
单选题
What does the author think of the unemployment figures and other statistics? ______
【正确答案】
D
【答案解析】根据题干中的unemployment figures and other statistics定位到第二段。 本题询问作者对于失业数字及其他统计数据的看法。该段在后面提到这些数据的问题所在之一:不是对现实的客观衡量,只是最佳近似值而已。所以据此得出,D“这些数据不能完全地反映现实情况”为正确答案。 原文只是提到,这些数据会影响政府决策、公司预算和个人支出决定。A“它们为制定决策奠定了坚实的基础”属于过度推断。第三句说到,这些统计数据并不是对现实的客观衡量,可见B“它们代表了当前的形势”也不准确。第四句只是提出,这些数据能反映趋势,反映和预示是两码事,C“它们预示未来的经济趋势”属于过度推断。
单选题
One problem with the payroll survey is that ______.