Today, I will focus on one major impact of the current financial crisis on Asia-Pacific, that is, the decline in domestic demand. Particularly, I want to talk about the factors leading to declines in domestic demand.
Equity markets in developing countries around the world have suffered large decreases in value since mid-September 2008, reflecting a global credit crunch and a worldwide flight to safety among investors.
These declines are expected to cause a number of effects that will dampen domestic demand, especially personal consumption and corporate investments. Although equity market investments only constitute a small percentage of overall household wealth and equity financing consists of relatively a small portion of corporate investment in Asia-Pacific as compared with developed countries, the declines will affect the more advanced economies of the region, such as the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong of China.
Secondly, declines in property markets will further dampen domestic demand. The reduction in housing prices will have an effect on real estate investments, which have played a particularly important role in the growth of domestic demand in a number of countries--most notably in China, where the property sector accounts for about one quarter of all investment.
Private consumption will also be affected by the fall in property prices, particularly in the more advanced economies in the region, where property assets account for a more significant portion of household wealth.
Thirdly, reduced bank lending is the most significant factor curtailing corporate activity and domestic demand.
The concern here is that an increase in non-performing loans will result in greater restraints on and a reduction in new lending, leading to possible higher costs for new borrowers. Increased borrowing costs may in turn add further pressures resulting in a greater number of corporate defaults. Today, I will focus on one major impact of the current financial crisis on Asia-Pacific, that is, the decline in domestic demand. Particularly, I want to talk about the factors leading to declines in domestic demand.
无今天,我主要谈一下内需下降的问题,这是此次亚太地区金融危机带来的主要影响。我主要想谈一下内需下滑的成因。
自2008年9月中旬以来,世界范围内的发展中国家证券市场的市值都大幅缩水,这反映出全球性的信贷紧张,投资人纷纷撤离资金,以求自保。
证券市场的低迷也会影响内需,个人消费和企业投资都会减少。虽然在发展中国家,个人和机构在证券市场的投资比重比在发达国家小,但该市场的不景气会影响到该地区内一些较发达的经济体,例如韩国、新加坡以及中国香港。
其次,房地产市场的低迷会进一步减少内需。房价下跌将影响房地产业的投资,而在该领域的投资对于一些发展中国家内部需求的增长具有重要的拉动意义。中国就是一个明显的例子,其房地产的投资占国内总投资的1/4。
由于房价的下跌,个人特别是在房屋上投资较多的个人将减少消费。
第三,银行信贷收紧会直接影响企业的投资以及内需。
需要注意的是不良贷款的增加会使银行收紧信贷,会使贷款的成本上升,进而增加公司的压力,甚至导致更多的不良贷款。