What a UK exit from EU could mean?
Perhaps UK Prime Minister David Cameron believed back in 2013, when he promised a referendum on whether Britain would stay in the EU, that Euroskeptics couldn’t possibly win. But much has changed since, and though a majority of those voting in the June 23 referendum are likely to want to keep Britain in the union, the risk is real that a surge of fear over migrants or a terrorist attack, could tip the scales toward an “out” vote. And that would have major implications for Britain, Europe and the world.
A vote to leave would force the British government to renegotiate trade and investment relationships with other EU members. Over time, Britain might secure access to EU markets for its goods on fairly favorable terms, but European leaders would make the process as arduous and painful as possible to discourage other EU states from threatening exit to win concessions. Two years of negotiations—at least—would generate enough uncertainty to create serious problems for Britain’s growth and investment outlook.
It would prove much more difficult to win access to European services markets. In the financial sector, EU leaders aren’t likely to accept a continuing role for London as the major financial center in Europe, particularly for eurozone financial products. Brexit might carry a heavy political cost as well, because it could give Scottish nationalists the argument and energy they need not only to hold another vote on Scottish independence from the UK but to win this time.
Brexit would also damage Europe, especially at first. In time, it’s possible that a UK exit would make it easier for EU leaders to move forward with treaty changes, traditionally resisted by the British, that would allow for closer union, possibly even of fiscal policy. In the meantime, however, losing Britain would hurt. The UK is the second biggest contributor to the EU’s budget, after Germany. Losing the UK could cost the EU 15% of its GDP.
More worrisome, Britain is not the only EU member ambivalent about staying within the union. The Brexit precedent could pose a major threat to Europe’s open borders, the euro zone, even the entire European project. It would surely weaken efforts to strengthen damaged European-US ties and undermine efforts to complete a historic transatlantic trade and investment agreement.
In the end, a majority of British voters will probably choose to stay in the EU. But this is no sure thing. London Mayor Boris Johnson announced on Feb. 21 that he will support a vote for Brexit, and though his calculation is surely driven more by a bid to win Conservative Party support to become Prime Minister than by any genuine conviction, he’s playing with fire. When it comes to Brexit, no one can be confident of the outcome.
Which one is false according to paragraph one?
根据文章第一段主要内容“尽管在6月23日的公投中，大多数人可能希望让英国留在欧盟，但风险是 真实的，即对移民或恐怖袭击的恐惧激增，可能会使天平向脱欧倾斜。这将对英国、欧洲和世界产生重大 影响。”可知B、C、D三项描述正确。A项卡梅伦认为英国将留在欧盟，因为他承诺举行公投，与原文意思 不符。故A项为正确答案。
What may not happen if Britain exits from EU according to paragraph two and paragraph three?
根据文章第二段第一句“A vote to leave would force the British government to renegotiate trade and investment relationships with other EU members.”可知A项描述英国和其他欧盟成员国之间将会有一种新的贸 易关系正确。文章第三段提及了“脱欧”苏格兰想要独立于英国和伦敦将不再是欧洲的主要金融中心，C、D 选项描述正确。B项描述英国政府在谈判中肯定会得到有利的条件错误，故B项为正确答案。
What is the biggest influence that UK exit may bring?
根据文章第四段最后两句“In the meantime, however, losing Britain would hurt. The UK is the second biggest contributor to the EU’s budget, after Germany. Losing the UK could cost the EU 15% of its GDP.”可知如 果没有英国的贡献，欧盟的经济将受到影响。故C项为正确答案。
Which statement is not true according to paragraph five?
文章第五段提到“更令人担忧的是，英国并不是唯一一个对留在欧盟内部感到矛盾的欧盟成员国。英 国脱欧的先例可能会对欧洲的开放边界、欧元区乃至整个欧洲一体化计划构成重大威胁。这肯定会削弱加 强欧洲与美国关系的努力，并破坏已经达成历史性的《跨大西洋贸易和投资协定》。”A、B、C三项均符合 段意。D项在欧美关系上，欧盟正面临着一个繁荣的未来错误。故D项为正确答案。
According to the passage, why no one can be confident of the outcome of Brexit?
文章主要讲述了英国脱欧会带来的危害以及英国人本身就对此犹豫不决，所以没有人对这一举措满 怀信心。故B项为正确答案。