The Secret of Secret Santa A When it comes to Christmas presents, do you give as good as you get? Most people think they do. Even President Barack Obama is on record saying he goes one better. 'Here's the general rule: I give nicer stuff than I get,' he told Oprah Winfrey in a pre-Christmas interview last year. That may seem ungrateful, but consider the implications. Most people believe that the gifts they get are not as good as the ones they give. No wonder Christmas is so often a crushing disappointment. B There is a better way: abandon the ritual of mutual gift-giving in favour of a much more rational system called secret Santa. The beauty of this is that you only have to buy one present for each social circle you belong to, rather than one for everyone you know. C In the original version of secret Santa each member of a group—colleagues, say—is anonymously assigned to buy a gift for another and give it to them at the Christmas party. Thankfully, that game has evolved into something more Machiavellian: thieving Santa, also known as dirty Santa or the Grinch game. As its name suggests, this revolves around theft and dirty tricks. In its simplest version, everybody buys a present costing between, say, ￡10 and ￡20. They then secretly deposit it, gift-wrapped, into a sack. To start the game, numbers are drawn out of a hat to decide the order of play. D Now the horse-trading begins. The first player must take a present from the sack and open it. The second player then has a choice—open a new present, or steal the already opened one. If they choose to steal, player 1 gets to open another present, but they are not allowed to steal their present straight back. Player 3 now enters the fray, either opening a new present or stealing an opened one, whereupon the victim gets to play again, either stealing a different present or opening another new one. And so it goes on until everybody has had a turn and there are no more unopened presents. E The system is not without its flaws, however. For example, if the first player opens a poor present they are likely to be stuck with it, while the player picked to go last has a good chance of getting a really good present, perhaps the best. For that reason there are many variants designed to spread the pain. One is to allow dispossessed players to steal a present back, although this tends to lead to endless rounds of tit-for-tat larceny. Another is to set a limit on how many times an individual present can be stolen. F If you have never played thieving Santa, give it a go. It's fun. Fun, though, can be overrated. What you really want is to win—and that means ending up with the best possible present. So how should you 8o about getting it? Imagine you are playing a game in which a present can only be stolen once and it is your turn. There are three opened presents on the table and four in the sack. One of the opened ones is not bad, and if you steal it you can keep it. But there may be even better ones in the sack, so why not gamble? Then again, if you open a really good present somebody is certain to steal it from you, and you risk ending up with something really terrible. What to do? G Here is where a strategy developed by game theorists Arpita Ghosh and Mohammad Mahdian of Yahoo Research in Santa Clara, California, can help. 'I heard about this game at a New Year's party, from somebody who had just been playing it at Christmas,' says Ghosh. 'I thought it would be fun to analyse.' H Ghosh and Mahdian decided to play a simplified version of the game. Assuming certain things—that the players are sober, for example, and that everybody puts the same value on the same presents. They wanted to work out how to 'maximise the expected utility'. Or, in English, to work out what you theoretically expect to get out of a transaction before it has happened. They started by thinking about the game's final round, where all but one of the players has had a turn and there is just one unopened present left in the sack. In this case the strategy is pretty obvious. If all the presents are worth somewhere between ￡10 and ￡20, the expected value of the final unopened present is ￡15. The rational strategy, therefore, is to look around the table and steal any present worth more than that. But remember, if the top present has been unwrapped it is likely to have been stolen already so you won't be able to have it. So if there isn't a present worth more than ￡15 that hasn't already been stolen, open the one in the sack. This means that the final player has an expected utility of at least ￡15, which is about as good as it gets. Expected utility, of course, is not the same as what you actually get. You might think that the final present is trash, in which case the strategy wasn't much help. But at least you can console yourself that it was correct in theory. I Ghosh and Mahdian then started to work backwards through each player's turn—a process known as backward induction—to derive a general strategy. Their next stop was the last-but-one player, where there are two unopened presents. This is a bit more complicated than before, as you have to take into account the possibility of opening a really good present which is immediately stolen. This possibility means that the last-but-one player must have a lower steal threshold than the final player. Ghosh and Mahdian's calculations show that a player in this position should steal any present worth ￡13.75 or more. If there is no such present available, they should open a new one. This 'threshold strategy' turns out to work for all players, except the first, who has no choice but to open an unopened gift. The steal threshold itself rises as each player takes their turn because the fewer people left to pick a present, the fewer opportunities there are for someone to steal yours. What this means is the steal threshold starts low; in an 8-player game it is approximately 11.56 for the second player. But, surprisingly, it delivers an expected utility of slightly more than ￡15 for all players—except poor old player 1, of course, who is more or less guaranteed to 'take one for the team' and get something pretty lousy. J 'When your turn arrives, have a look at the gifts that you can possibly steal,' says Ghosh. 'If the best of those is good enough, where "good enough" depends on how many unopened gifts remain, steal it. If the best of those is not good enough, open a new gift. What this is really all about is making sure you get the best of the rubbish.' This should perhaps be known as 'minimising your futility', Ghosh said. So what of the first player, who seems doomed to pick the short straw? This is an acknowledged problem in real-world thieving Santa, and is usually solved by giving the first player a chance to steal right at the end. In this case all the players have an expected utility of exactly ￡15. With all this strategy at her fingertips, you would expect Ghosh to be arranging secret Santa games every year. 'Actually no,' she says. 'I've never played it.' Typical theorist. —New Scientist

Which THREE situations conform to the house insurance claim terms?

{{B}}Qusetions 11-15{{/B}}Answer the following questions using {{B}}NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS AND/OR A NUMBER{{/B}} for each answer.

According to the text, {{B}}FIVE{{/B}} of the following statements are true. Write the corresponding letters in answer boxes 18 to 22 in any order. A. British oil production has halved in recent years.B. The weather conditions in the North Sea are not good.C. Oil fields are being looked for in areas with more difficult underwater conditions.D. Britain is expected to have over half the world market in underwater technology in the future.E. The discovery of large oil fields is less common nowadays.F. Offshore energy generation offers opportunities for developers of underwater technology.G. One suggestion is to construct fossil-fuel power plants offshore.H. The oil industry is complaining that the government is not focussing enough on training people with the skills the industry needs.

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Questions 1-5 Complete the notes below. Write NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS AND/OR A NUMBER for each answer.

You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 1-13, which are based on Reading Passage 1 below. Natural History Museum Expedition 'Poses Genocide Threat' to Paraguay Tribes Anthropologists and indigenous leaders have warned that a Natural History Museum expedition to Paraguay could lead to 'genocide' and are calling for it to be abandoned. They fear that the scientists and their teams of assistants are likely to make accidental contact with isolated indigenous groups in the remote region they are planning to visit and could pass on infectious diseases. The expedition is due to set off in the next few days for two of the remotest regions of the vast dry forest known as the Gran Chaco, which stretches over northern Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina. The expedition organisers hope to find several hundred new species of plants and insects. But the two sites where the British and Paraguayan teams of botanists, biologists and other scientists plan to stay in for up to a month are known to be home to groups of Ayoreo Indians. They live in voluntary isolation and reject and avoid all contact with Westerners, said Benno Glauser, director of leading indigenous peoples' protection group Iniciativa Amotocodie. Glauser, with the backing of Ayoreo leaders who have left the forest in the last 20 years, has sent the museum more than 40 pieces of data showing the presence of isolated peoples in the Chovoreca and Cabrera Timane regions. 'According to our data, the expedition you plan constitutes beyond any doubt an extremely high risk for the integrity, safety and legal rights of life and self-determination of the isolated Ayoreo, as well as for the integrity and stability of their territories. There exists a considerable menace and risk also for the safety of the scientists taking part of the expedition, as well as the rest of expedition participants,' says Glauser in a letter to the museum. Until about 1950 it is estimated that around 5,000 Ayoreo lived in the Chaco forest as isolated hunter-gatherers without contact with the ranchers and religious groups who were given land by the Paraguayan government. Since then almost all have left the forest after being targeted by American missionaries. It is estimated that there are now only six or seven isolated groups numbering around 150 people in total. It is now the only place in South America outside the Amazon where uncontacted Indians still live. Ayoreo leaders who have settled near the town of Filadelfia in northern Paraguay this week appealed to the president of Paraguay and the Natural History Museum to abandon the expedition, saying that their relatives were in grave danger. 'Both of these regions belong to the Ayoreo indigenous territory... We know that our people still live in the forest and they don't want to leave it to join white civilisation.' He said there are at least three uncontacted groups in the area. 'If this expedition goes ahead we will not be able to understand why you prefer to lose human lives just because the English scientists want to study plants and animals. There is too much risk: the people in the forest die frequently from catching white people's diseases. Because the white people leave their rubbish, their clothes, or other contaminated things. It's very serious. It's like a genocide,' they said in a statement. According to Survival International, a NGO that campaigns for the rights of tribal peoples, contact with any isolated Indians would be disastrous for either party. 'Contact with isolated groups is invariably violent, sometimes fatal and always disastrous,' said Jonathan Mazower, a spokesman. 'It is highly likely that there are small groups of isolated Indians scattered throughout the Chaco. The only sensible thing to do is err on the side of caution because any accidental contact can be disastrous. This has happened before [in the Chaco]. On two previous occasions, in 1979 and 1986 expeditions were sent in by U.S. missionaries to bring out Indians and people were killed on both occasions.' The expedition, one of the largest undertaken by the museum in more than 50 years, has taken several years to plan and is believed to be costing more than ￡300,000. It hopes to map and record species of thousands of plants and insects, which will then go to local Paraguayan museums. Until last month, the museum's website had claimed that the area the scientists will visit 'has not been explored by human beings'. This created consternation in the Ayoreo communities. 'Some people say they are going to places in which no human being has ever been. That means we Ayoreo are not human beings,' said one of the leaders in a statement to the Guardian. 'Our uncontacted brothers have the right to decide how they want to live—if they want to leave or not.' The Chaco, known as 'green hell' is one of the least hospitable but most biologically diverse places on Earth. The barely populated expanse of almost impenetrable forest is twice the size of the UK, but home to at least 3,400 plant species, 500 bird species, 150 species of mammals, 120 species of reptiles, and 100 species of amphibians. Jaguars, pumas, giant anteaters and giant otters are common. In a statement, the Natural History Museum said it had planned the expedition in conjunction with the Paraguayan government and would be working with Ayoreo Indians. It continued: 'We are delighted to be working with representatives of the indigenous people. This gives us a wonderful opportunity to combine traditionally acquired knowledge with scientifically acquired knowledge to our mutual benefit. As with all expeditions, the team is continually reviewing the situation. Our primary concern is for the welfare of the members of the expedition team and the people of the Dry Chaco region.' —Guardian

Questions 3-4 Choose the correct letter from A-C for each answer.

The Flavour Industry A. Read through the nutritional information on the food in your freezer, refrigerator or kitchen pantry, and you are likely to find a simple, innocuous-looking ingredient recurring on a number of products: "natural flavour". The story of what natural flavour is, how it got into your food, and where it came from, is the result of more complex processes than you might imagine. B. During the 1980s, health watchdogs and nutritionists began turning their attention to cholesterol, a waxy steroid metabolite that we mainly consume from animal-sourced products such as cheese, egg yolks, beef, poultry, shrimp and pork. Nutritionists blamed cholesterol for contributing to the growing rates of obesity, heart disease, diabetes and several cancers in Western societies. As extensive recognition of the matter grew amongst the common people, McDonalds stopped cooking their French fries in a mixture of cottonseed oil and beef tallow, and in 1990 the restaurant chain began using 100% vegetable oil instead. C. This substantially lowered the amount of cholesterol in McDonalds" fries, but it created a new dilemma. The beef tallow and cottonseed oil mixture gave the French fries high cholesterol content, but it also gifted them with a rich aroma and "mouth-feel" that even James Beard, an American food critic, admitted he enjoyed. Pure vegetable oil is bland in comparison. Looking at the current ingredients" list of McDonalds" French fries, however, it is easy to see how they overcame this predicament. Aside from a few preservatives, there are essentially three main ingredients: potato, soybean oil, and the mysterious component of "natural flavour". D. Natural flavour also entered our diet through the rise in processed foods, which now make up over 90% (and growing) of the American diet, as well as representing a burgeoning industry in developing countries such as China and India. Processed foods are essentially any foods that have been boxed, bagged, canned or packaged, and have a list of ingredients on the label. Sometimes, the processing involves adding a little sodium or sugar, and a few preservatives. Often, however, it is coloured, bleached, stabilised, emulsified, dehydrated, odour-concealed and sweetened. This process typically saps any original flavour out of the product, and so, of course, flavour must be added back in as well. E. Often this is "natural flavour", but while the term may bring to mind images of fresh barley, hand-ground spices and dried herbs being traded in a bustling street market, most of these natural sources are in fact engineered to culinary perfection in a set of factories and plants off the New Jersey Turnpike outside of New York. Here, firms such as International Flavors & Fragrances, Harmen & Reimer, Flavor Dynamics, Frutarom and Elan Chemical isolate and manufacture the tastes that are incorporated in much of what we eat and drink. The sweet, summery burst of naturally squeezed orange juice, the wood-smoked aroma in barbeque sauces, and the creamy, buttery, fresh taste in many dairy products do not come from sundrenched meadows or backyard grills, but are formed in the labs and test tubes of these flavour industry giants. F. The scientists—dubbed "flavourists"—who create the potent chemicals that set our olfactory senses to overdrive use a mix of techniques that have been refined over many years. Part of it is dense, intricate chemistry: spectrometers, gas chromatographs and headspace-vapour analysers can break down components of a flavour in amounts as minute as one part per billion. Not to be outdone, however, the human nose can isolate aromas down to three parts per trillion. Flavourists therefore consider their work as much an art as a science, and flavourism requires a nose "trained" with a delicate and poetic sense of balance. G. Should we be wary of the industrialisation of natural flavour? On its own, the trend may not present any clear reason for alarm. Nutritionists widely agree that the real assault on health in the last few decades stems from an "unholy trinity" of sugar, fat and sodium in processed foods. Natural flavour on its own is not a health risk. It does play a role, however, in helping these processed foods to taste fresh and nutritious, even when they are not. So while the natural flavour industry should not be considered the culprit, we might think of it as a willing accomplice.

{{B}}Questions 11-15{{/B}}Complete the following sentences using {{B}}NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS{{/B}} for each gap.

According to the text, {{B}}FIVE{{/B}} of the following statements are true. Write the corresponding letters in answer boxes 18 to 22 in any order. A. It is not a problem if illegal immigrants buy fake IDs.B. Identity theft is often hard to discover immediately.C. Symantec is a new firm.D. Phishing scams involve convincing people to give their details over the intemet.E. Honest computer security testers tell the software company when they find zero day exploits.F. Trojan horses only steal online bank account information.G. People shouldn't respond to emails asking for confidential information.H. Check for online security measures before buying things online.

What is the International Criminal Court? The International Criminal Court (ICC), based in The Hague, Netherlands and established on July 1, 2002, is the first permanent court that can promote the rule of law and ensure that the gravest international crimes do not go unpunished. It has the power to prosecute serious crimes against humanity no matter who committed them and try people for gross violations of human rights, such as those committed during military conflicts. A total of 18 judges have been elected of which 7 are women. How was the International Criminal Court created? On July 17, 1998, the Rome Statute of the ICC was adopted despite the fact 7 countries, namely the USA, China, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Qatar and Yemen, out of 127 voted against it. Bi-or tri-annual meetings of the United Nations Preparatory Commission for the ICC were held on the subject of the ICC. The Preparatory Commission was responsible for producing a great deal of work on the jurisdiction, structure and functions of the ICC, including a complementary set of rules of procedures and evidence for investigating and prosecuting genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. After receiving 60 ratifications (now 90) by April 11, 2002, the Statute finally came into force on July 1, 2002. Since then governments that have ratified and acceded to the Statute have convened in the Assembly of States Parties which is the governing body responsible for the political, legislative, financial and management oversight of the ICC. United States and the ICC What most people have found surprising are the actions of the US to oppose the ICC. Human Rights organisations and social justice groups are outraged at the stance that the US has taken. Their main complaint is that the US signed up just before the December 2000 deadline, allowing it to be a State Party that could participate in decision making about how the Court works even though it opposed the ICC from the start. The Bush Administration then unsigned in May 2002. Secondly, the US threatened to use military force if US nationals were held at The Hague. Thirdly, the US will restrict its participation in United Nations peacekeeping unless it obtains immunity from prosecution. Thus, it is a condition of the United States' participation in the ICC that such participation can be waived by the president on 'national interest' grounds. This can be seen as saying "we will help you bring others to justice, but not us". Finally, the US continues to pressure many countries to sign agreements not to surrender US citizens to the ICC. Some methods they have employed to do so are financial incentives, economic sanctions and the withdrawal of military aid (on July 1, 2003, the Bush Administration cut off military aid to 35 friendly countries). According to some of the agreements, the US may use military force to liberate any American or US allied citizen held by the court in The Hague. Some activists have dubbed this act as the "Hague Invasion Act". The US has had some success in gaining impunity agreements to date. It has received 79 signatures to Bilateral Immunity Agreements, 36 State Parties have signed, 27 States have received permanent waivers and they have 14 ratifications of Bilateral Immunity Agreements. On the other hand, 58 of 94 State Parties have not signed, 45 of which have publicly refused signing, and 23 have not signed despite loss of US aid. What work remains to be done to ensure the ICC's effective functioning? Each nation must cooperate with the ICC in the campaign for universal ratification and effective implementation of the Rome Statute. They must adopt complementary national legislation to allow for national-level prosecutions of the same crimes. Furthermore, like the UN and other independent international institutions, the ICC relies on a separate agreement known as the Agreement on Privileges and Immunities to protect the Court and its personnel. Both State Parties and non-State Parties must ratify this agreement to ensure the safe access of ICC staff to their territory and the unimpeded transfer of evidence, witnesses and other information to and from the Court. While every region of the world is represented amongst ratifying countries, further support is needed from key regions, including Asia and the Middle East.

What does the clerk say about deductibles?

According to the text, {{B}}FIVE{{/B}} of the following statements are true. Write the corresponding letters in answer boxes 18 to 22 in any order. A Germany has the highest percentage of childless women. B Italy and Poland have high birth rates. C Most of the reasons given by Michael Teitelbaum are not unique to Germany. D Communist governments in Europe encouraged people to have children. E In 1979, most families had one or two children. F European women who have a child later usually have more soon after. G In 2001, people wanted fewer children than in 1979, according to Eurobarometer research. H Here may be a natural level at which birth rates stop declining.

判断题The production of fish in many countries, like Denmark, increased due to the environmental restriction.

判断题In order to take Danish fish farming a stage further, several measures would be taken, including the expansion of the modem fish farming.

判断题Population growth need increased building of homes and other structures in areas where were used to be forests.

判断题African farmers would get the same result with European and American ones if they used the same kind of technology.

判断题More than 10 groups and organisations worldwide made food the top priority.